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Morning Report: Breaking Down Some of the Best and Worst Prospect Performances So Far

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Yesterday I wrote about how the early season stats in the minors are important to follow, but ultimately end up meaningless. Prospects, especially the ones at the lowest levels, are constantly making adjustments and changing their game. As that happens, they almost become different players, at least to the point where anything they did prior to their changes and adjustments doesn’t reflect the player they are going forward.

We’re a few weeks into the minor league season, and there are some promising players, along with some players who are struggling. Rather than just looking at the basic stats, I wanted to take a deeper look at these players to see what they’re doing right or wrong, and what they need to work on going forward. Here’s a look at four players off to a strong start, and four players who are starting the season slow.

Off to a Strong Start

Calvin Mitchell – Mitchell has been a great story early in the season. A second round pick out of high school last year, Mitchell has started the season with a 1.070 OPS. I wrote about some of the things he was working on at the plate during Spring Training. Tom Bragg followed up on that last week, looking at everything that was working for him. I saw Mitchell put together a few hot stretches last year in the GCL, followed by some stretches where he had issues with strikeouts and pitch recognition. We’ll see if he can avoid the latter this time around.

Jason Martin – Martin came to the Pirates with some power potential already part of his game. He had a .210 ISO last year in his jump to Double-A, although he also had a high strikeout rate. The power so far this year is up, although the strikeouts are still the same, and slightly higher. The one consolation is that the walks are also up. Martin will need to cut down on the strikeouts going forward, but the increase in walks and the continued power represent good signs that will hopefully continue.

Travis MacGregor – MacGregor has been dominant in two of his starts, leading to an 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings, with a 20:4 K/BB ratio to start the year. In his other start, he lasted only one inning before being pulled due to a single inning pitch limit. He’s made a lot of strides with improving his command, while also improving his curveball. The latter has been encouraging so far based on the strikeout totals. The command still has some issues, and if he can limit that, he’ll be on his way to a breakout season.

Nick Kingham – Kingham saw his old stuff returning at the end of last year, seeing increased velocity, along with more consistent command. The command still isn’t as consistent as it was prior to his Tommy John surgery, but has shown improvements. He has a 1.59 ERA in 22.2 innings this year, with a 27:7 K/BB ratio. Two of his outings have seen three walks each, with the other two limiting the control problems. He looks like he might be finally getting back on track to where he was before his injury, and if he keeps that up, he should end up in the majors at some point this year.

Off to a Slow Start

Lolo Sanchez – I had Sanchez as my big breakout pick this year, but he hasn’t come close to that yet. He has a .605 OPS, and Tom Bragg broke down some of the reasons for his early struggles last week. Sanchez is showing flashes of his talent, but hasn’t been consistent. He might be getting caught in the trap of trying to hit for power too much, or trying to go for bigger hits. His strikeout total is at 17 this year in 58 at-bats, compared to 19 in 204 at-bats last year and 18 in 153 the year before. He’ll need to cut down on that and get back to being a guy who hits for average and gets on base, with power being a bonus.

Kevin Newman – I didn’t include struggling position players like Kevin Kramer in Indianapolis or Ke’Bryan Hayes in Altoona, since they’re both making the jump to a new level. But Newman played in Indianapolis last year in the second half, and has struggled in his return. He’s got a .506 OPS and still is showing very little power while not getting on base via walks. He’s looking like a singles hitter, which combined with a lack of walks doesn’t lead to a good offensive profile. He’ll need to increase the walks and/or increase the power going forward.

Alex McRae – The Pirates like McRae, giving him a good look in Spring Training, and giving him a rotation spot in Triple-A at the start of the year. He has been getting some strikeouts, which is encouraging, but he’s also been getting hit hard, and in his best outing of the year (from a runs standpoint) he only lasted 3.2 innings. I’ve felt that McRae’s upside is a middle reliever, and maybe a spot starter as a depth option. He’s going to need to find a strikeout pitch in order to maximize his value and reach that starting potential. But if he’s getting hit around with his pitch-to-contact approach, then that puts even the middle relief upside in question.

Domingo Robles – The downside for Robles is that he has a 5.28 ERA in 15.1 innings over three starts. The good news is that he looks like he’s developing a strikeout pitch, with a curveball that he’s dropping in early for strikes, while also getting a lot of swings and misses. He has 16 strikeouts so far, while showing good control with only one walk. He’s been hit pretty hard, and will need to improve his fastball to avoid that. But the curveball development is very encouraging.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 3-2 to the Philadelphia Phillies in 11 innings on Sunday. The Pirates are off today. On Tuesday, they will send Chad Kuhl to the mound for his fifth start as they return to PNC Park to take on the Detroit Tigers. He allowed one run over six innings in his start against the Rockies last week. In his previous start, he gave up four runs on 11 hits over five innings against the Marlins. The Tigers will counter with veteran right-handed pitcher Jordan Zimmerman, who has a 7.71 ERA in four starts, with 18 strikeouts and an 1.59 WHIP in 16.1 innings. He faced the Pirates on Opening Day in Detroit and allowed four runs over six innings.

The minor league schedule includes the fourth start from Domingo Robles, who allowed one run on two hits in six innings during his last start. He struck out nine batters in that game and has a 16:1 SO/BB ratio this season. Tyler Eppler also gets his fourth start, as he looks to  bounce back from a rough three inning outing that followed up two shutout performances. JT Brubaker has 21 strikeouts in 16 innings this season. He allowed one run over six frames in his last start.

MLB: Pittsburgh (12-10) vs Tigers (9-11) 7:05 PM 4/24
Probable starter: Chad Kuhl (4.57 ERA, 17:7 SO/BB, 21.2 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (7-7) vs Syracuse (10-5) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Tyler Eppler (2.84 ERA, 14:3 SO/BB, 12.2 IP)

AA: Altoona (8-7) vs Erie (6-10) 6:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: JT Brubaker (2.25 ERA, 21:5 SO/BB, 16.0 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (11-6) vs Tampa (8-9) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: James Marvel (4.60 ERA, 14:4 SO/BB, 15.2 IP)

Low-A: West Virginia (10-7) vs Rome (9-7) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Domingo Robles (5.28 ERA, 16:1 SO/BB, 15.1 IP)

HIGHLIGHTS

From Altoona on Saturday, a look at Jason Martin’s big day at the plate, which included his first home run.

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

4/21: Sergio Cubilete placed on disabled list. Hunter Stratton added to West Virginia roster.

4/20: Pablo Reyes promoted to Indianapolis. Brett McKinney assigned to Morgantown.

4/20: Kevin Krause released. Bralin Jackson and Jordan George added to Altoona roster.

4/20: AJ Schugel assigned to Indianapolis on rehab.

4/18: Dylan Prohoroff placed on West Virginia DL. Matt Seelinger added to WV roster.

4/17: Brent Gibbs retired.

4/16: Josh Harrison placed on DL. Dovydas Neverauskas optioned to Indianapolis. Enny Romero and Max Moroff added to Pirates.

4/16: Jesus Liranzo activated from Altoona disabled list.  Sam Street assigned to  Morgantown.

4/14: Pirates claim Enny Romero off of waivers.

4/13: Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez recalled. Clay Holmes and Josh Smoker sent to Indianapolis.

THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY

Five former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, including one that made his only big league appearances in a significant game in Pirates history. Connie Walsh pitched one inning in the Majors, playing his only game on September 16,1907. He pitched in relief of Babe Adams, who was making his first start with the Pirates. Adams went on to win 194 games with the Pirates, the second highest total in team history. Walsh gave up one run on a walk and a hit in his inning. He pitched in the minors until 1914 and managed for three seasons, but never made it back to the Majors. During that Walsh/Adams game, the Pirates lost 5-1 to the St Louis Cardinals in a game that took 90 minutes to play. It was the second game of a doubleheader. The Pirates won game one by a 4-2 score.

Other Pirates players born on this date include: Pitcher Dave Davidson (2007), pitcher Ron Blackburn (1958-59), pitcher Ray Starr (1944-45) and outfielder Bob Ganley (1905-06). Ganley was a late-season addition in 1905, hitting .315 in 32 games. That earned him the right field job in 1906, and he hit .258 with 41 walks, 63 runs scored and 19 stolen bases in 137 games. The Pirates sold him to the Washington Senators at the end of the season.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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