Mitch Keller began working on a new changeup grip last year with Altoona. The old one wasn’t working, so he started using a circle changeup grip. The pitch wasn’t one he trusted at first, as he needed to get comfortable with it while finding spots to use it in game situations. By the end of the year and into the Eastern League playoffs, we saw better results from the pitch in live views. That continued into the Arizona Fall League, where Tim Williams saw him pitch and talked to both Justin Meccage (then the minor league pitching coordinator) and Keller after the game.
The changeup for Keller has been a big topic recently because of poor overall results in his first four games with Indianapolis. The fact that Tyler Glasnow had trouble with his changeup and he’s now a reliever weighs heavy on the minds of fans.
There is a big difference between the two players that is more of a factor than their third pitch. That would be Glasnow’s lack of improvements in control over the years, while Keller has been described as a pitcher with above average control, who can command the ball to both sides of the plate. We have not seen that command so far in Triple-A, and it was missing at times with Altoona this year.
That being said, the changeup is what people have been talking about recently, so I sat and watched his last two starts specifically for that reason. I’ve seen all four starts with Indianapolis, but I watched the third one again with a focus on the changeup results, then charted the results from last night when he pitched five innings against Buffalo.
As mentioned in our recap from his third game, Keller was extremely effective with his changeup in an otherwise poor outing. He was getting swing-and-misses with the pitch from both lefty and righty hitters. You don’t see many right-on-right changeups, but his was running in on the batter and they were unable to do anything with the pitch.
Last night’s start didn’t have the same results, but it was still an extremely effective pitch. Here’s the pitch-by-pitch chart from the game, noting whether the batter was a lefty or righty.
- swinging strikeout, lefty
- fly out, lefty (Reese McGuire)
- foul, righty
- foul, lefty
- foul, lefty
- grounder to 2B, lefty
- foul, lefty
- ball, lefty
- grounder to 2B (McGuire)
- foul, righty
- fly out, lefty
There may have been one other one in the middle of the game to a lefty that was a ball, but the camera didn’t catch the catcher signal and the speed wasn’t posted. It was called a fastball by the announcer, but that’s not the best indicator. Either way, working with the 11 pitches we have, you see he threw the pitch for strikes ten times and it resulted in five outs, one swing and miss and five foul balls. His changeup was 88-90 MPH, while the fastball was mostly 94-96, with a few 93’s, 97’s and one 98. You would like to see 8-10 MPH between the two pitches and he was mostly 6-7 MPH off.
The bigger concern right now for Keller is finding his command, as all of the damage was done against the fastball last night and it was usually when he got it up in the zone and over the middle of the plate. That happened in previous games as well. The opposition also ran up his pitch count with foul balls. He’s had that command in the past, so I think everything will be fine as he continues to get settled into Triple-A.
Those hopeful plans early in the year that he could help out the Pirates in September seem well out of reach right now, with five weeks left in the minor league season. Any success he has between now and the end of the year (6-7 starts) would be a small sample size unless the team extends into the playoffs. What that means is that you probably won’t see him early next year either (Super 2), so I’d say he will have about 17-18 more starts in Triple-A to work on things before he reaches Pittsburgh if everything goes well. If things don’t improve by next May, then you can start to worry.
