I don’t need to tell you that losing eight games in a row will drastically change your playoff odds in a very bad way. I’ve been tracking the playoff odds around the NL, looking not only at the Pirates, but the chances for every other team. I’ve been using an average of the playoff odds from Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, FiveThirtyEight, and Clay Davenport.
A week ago, the Pirates had an average of 33.7% for their playoff odds across those four projection systems. Today they sit at 13.5%.
A 20 percentage point drop in one week is devastating to any team. But to get the full picture of how this impacts their chances going forward, let’s look at this in perspective with the league.
One Week Ago
Here were the projections a week ago, broken up by tiers.
Tier 1
Dodgers – 88.5%
Tier 2
Nationals – 52.7%
Phillies – 48.9%
Cardinals – 48%
Brewers – 47.2%
Tier 3
Braves – 40.6%
Mets – 40.3%
Tier 4
Pirates – 33.7%
Cubs – 32.7%
Diamondbacks – 22.2%
Tier 5
Padres – 14.8%
Rockies – 13.9%
Reds – 11.1%
Tier 6
Giants – 5.2%
Marlins – 0.6%
The Pirates were in that fourth tier, although you could group them differently. You could put all of the projected playoff teams in one tier, and all of the teams just on the outside in a second tier. The result is the same. The Pirates weren’t projected for the playoffs, but were one of the four top teams just outside of the Wild Card projection, with the Braves and Mets ahead of them by a good amount.
They needed to make up some ground heading into last week. Now, let’s see how far they’ve fallen since.
This Week
Once again, we’ll use the same tiers.
Tier 1
Dodgers – 89%
Tier 2
Cardinals – 60.5%
Tier 3
Nationals – 46.5%
Cubs – 44.1%
Brewers – 42.7%
Phillies – 41.8%
Mets – 40.4%
Tier 4
Braves – 34.3%
Diamondbacks – 33.6%
Padres – 23.4%
Tier 5
Rockies – 16.6%
Pirates – 13.5%
Reds – 8.5%
Tier 6
Giants – 4.7%
Marlins – 0.6%
The tier numbers are a bit different, based on how everything turned out this week. The Dodgers are still ahead of the pack, and almost guaranteed the playoffs. The Cardinals have pulled ahead of the other teams as well in the last week.
The third tier has all of the remaining projected playoff teams, plus a few of the top contenders. There was a seven point difference between the final playoff team and the top contender last week. This week the difference is 0.9 points. The difference between the Pirates and the final playoff team was 13.5 points, with two teams standing between them.
The Pirates have fallen much lower this week. There are nine teams with a 33% chance of making the playoffs. The Pirates are 20 points lower than that ninth team, with two teams between them. They’re not in Giants or Marlins territory, where the season is basically over before it began. But they’re far from contenders at this point.
Now it’s early. The calendar hasn’t flipped to May yet, and the MLB season is long. An eight game losing streak is horrible, but there’s plenty of opportunity for a similar winning streak.
The problem is that a winning streak at this point will only hopefully get them back into that crowded mix outside of the playoffs. They would need another lengthy winning streak in order to advance from there and join the actual playoff contenders.
The Pirates were off to a good start prior to last week, but they were a team with very little room for error, even with so many things already going wrong for them this year on the injury front. I don’t want to say that they needed everything to go right heading into last week. However, that might be a more appropriate assessment heading into this week, as they find themselves needing to make up 30 points and needing to pass seven teams in the projections to get in position for the second Wild Card spot.
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 7-6 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday evening. The Pirates are off today, as they travel to Texas to play the Rangers in a quick two-game set. Jordan Lyles is scheduled to go up against former Pirates prospect Adrian Sampson. Lyles allowed four runs over five innings in his last start, after giving up just one run in his first three starts. Sampson has a 4.50 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and 14 strikeouts in 22 innings, covering two starts and four relief appearances. His last two outings have been in relief and he combined for four shutout innings in those games.
The minor league schedule includes just two games today, with both Bradenton and Greensboro off. JT Brubaker was supposed to start today for Indianapolis, but he was placed on the injured list and Dario Agrazal should take his spot today. Agrazal had a 19:0 SO/BB ratio with Altoona this season in 25 innings. Altoona will send out Cam Vieaux, who has a 2.49 ERA over his first four starts. He allowed four runs in his last outing, after giving up just two runs total over his first three starts. The Curve will be facing Casey Mize, making his Double-A debut. He was the first overall selection in last year’s draft.
The full 2019 Pirates Prospects Prospect Guide is now available, up to date as of April 3rd, with every player in the minor league system. Includes full reports on the top 50 prospects, reports on over 150 other players, as well as looks back at the recent drafts and international signing classes.
MLB: Pittsburgh (12-14) @ Rangers (14-13) 8:05 PM 4/30
Probable starter: Jordan Lyles (2.05 ERA, 21:5 SO/BB, 22.0 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (12-10) vs Columbus (14-9) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Dario Agrazal (NR)
AA: Altoona (11-11) vs Erie (9-10) 6:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Cam Vieaux (2.49 ERA, 14:7 SO/BB, 21.2 IP)
High-A: Bradenton (16-8) @ Jupiter (7-16) 6:30 PM 4/30 (season preview)
Probable starter: Cody Bolton (0.82 ERA, 23:6 SO/BB, 22.0 IP)
Low-A: Greensboro (14-9) vs Rome (9-14) 7:00 PM 4/30 (season preview)
Probable starter: Brad Case (1.59 ERA, 15:2 SO/BB, 22.2 IP)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Indianapolis, Eric Wood hitting his third home run of the season to straightaway center field
Belt high, belted.@ericwood24 can crush.
From Altoona, Jason Delay was struggling before Saturday’s game, but three hits helped out his stats. Here are two of them in gif form
.@jdelay5 sends one the other way and the seesaw action continues. Tied, 4-4, after four innings at our place. pic.twitter.com/msBRX2Ybqo
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) April 27, 2019
and
Have a day, @jdelay5! His third hit of the game brings in another run and we're tied once again.
Curve 5, Richmond 5 after six. pic.twitter.com/SRQzFfkGat
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) April 27, 2019
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
4/28: Oneil Cruz placed on injured list. Deon Stafford activated from injured list.
4/28: JT Brubaker placed on injured list. Dario Agrazal promoted to Indianapolis. Angel German added to Altoona roster.
4/27: Chris Archer placed on injured list. Pirates recall Michael Feliz
4/26: Stephen Alemais placed on injured list. Adrian Valerio promoted to Altoona. Gavin Wallace added to Bradenton roster.
4/23: Nick Burdi placed on injured list. Pirates recall Steven Brault.
4/23: Brandon Maurer placed on injured list. Montana DuRapau added to Indianapolis roster
4/23: Kevin Newman sent to Indianapolis on rehab. Nick Franklin assigned to Indianapolis
4/23: Oneil Cruz assigned to Bradenton.
4/22: Blake Weiman added to Altoona roster. Angel German assigned to Extended Spring Training
4/22: Joel Cesar added to Bradenton roster. Gavin Wallace assigned to Extended Spring Training
4/22: Jose Osuna assigned to Bradenton on rehab
4/22: Gregory Polanco activated from injured list. Steven Brault optioned to Indianapolis
4/21: Elias Diaz activated from injured list. Jacob Stallings placed on injured list.
4/20: Starling Marte and Erik Gonzalez placed on injured list. Cole Tucker and Bryan Reynolds added to Pirates
4/20: Alfredo Reyes promoted to Indianapolis. Ryan Peurifoy assigned to Altoona
4/19: Lonnie Chisenhall assigned to Indianapolis on rehab
4/19: John Bormann activated from injured list. Joel Cesar assigned to Extended Spring Training
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
Two former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, one was part of a father-son combo that both played for the Pirates. Pitcher Tony Armas made 15 starts and 16 relief appearances for the 2007 Pirates. He had an awful season, posting a 6.03 ERA and ended up pitching just three more Major League games following his time in Pittsburgh. His father, who was also named Tony Armas, was an outfielder, who was signed by the Pirates as an amateur free agent in 1971. He played briefly with the team in 1976, before he was traded to the Oakland A’s.
Also born on this date was outfielder John Vander Wal, who was part of two big trades for the Pirates. In 2000, he was acquired for Al Martin. Then in 2001 at the trade deadline, he was sent to the San Francisco Giants as part of the Jason Schmidt deal. Vander Wal put up big numbers for the Pirates in limited time in 2000, driving in 94 runs in 384 at-bats.
One game of note, and there is another from the 1990 season mentioned in the link above. On this date in 1934, the Pirates played their first Sunday home game in franchise history. They beat the Cincinnati Reds by a 9-5 score in front of 20,000 fans. Prior to 1934, there was a law on the books, prohibiting Sunday baseball (professional games) in the state of Pennsylvania.
Owner Barney Dreyfuss was against the idea of Sunday baseball at home, so he never fought the law. That meant that the Pirates franchise went their first 52 seasons without playing a Sunday game at home, often times traveling to nearby Cincinnati, or Cleveland during the earlier days, to play their Sunday games. Dreyfuss passed away in 1932, and after that both the Phillies and Pirates appealed the law, getting it removed in time for the 1934 season. The Pirates lineup from that day can be found below, while you can see the full boxscore here.
Lloyd Waner, CF
Paul Waner, RF
Freddie Lindstrom, LF
Arky Vaughan, SS
Gus Suhr, 1B
Cookie Lavagetto, 2B
Tommy Thevenow, 3B
Pat Veltman, C
Red Lucas, P
