The Pittsburgh Pirates have the 18th overall draft pick in this year’s June amateur draft. I wanted to look at the history of that pick today, going over the recent players picked 18th overall each year. You’ll see that there is no guarantee with this pick, whether you choose a college player or make a high upside high school pick. Obviously you have a better chance to get someone good in a strong year for the draft, but this year is considered average overall, so looking at the average value received by this picks is a fun little exercise on a Saturday morning. The draft begins 37 days from today and our coverage will ramp up soon as more mock drafts are posted.
I’m not going to look at the last four years because it’s too soon for those players. The last two were college picks (both University of Florida pitchers), while the previous two were younger players. Going back to the 2014 draft, the Washington Nationals took pitcher Erik Feede, who has made the majors, though not with success yet. The Dodgers took college pitcher Chris Anderson in 2013 and he hasn’t played since 2017. Right away you get a college player who didn’t make it.
Going to 2011 and 2012, you see that you can have success with this pick, either from the high school side or college. In 2011, Sonny Gray was selected by the Oakland Athletics. That was followed by Corey Seager in 2012 by the Dodgers. Both have provided value to their teams over the years.
The Marlins chose high school pitcher Chad James 18th overall in 2009 and he topped out at Double-A. The year before that, the New York Mets took Ike Davis and he had a couple of decent years, then spent some time with the Pirates and faded out.
The previous three years provided us with three MLB players, who all have negative WAR value. Peter Kozma (2007) has been a decent bench player over the years, while pitchers Kyle Drabek (2006) and Cesar Carrillo (2005) had brief careers in the majors.
It doesn’t get any better in the three-year stretch prior to those players. From 2002-04 Josh Fields, Brad Snyder and Royce Ring produced a combined -2.1 WAR. It’s a six-year run of players making the majors, but all ending up with a negative career WAR. Prospects that make the majors have value in trades. You just need to trade them before they top out as below replacement level players.
The string of bad luck is snapped (technically it was preceded) by Aaron Heilman, who had a nine-year career with some success as a reliever after he didn’t make it as a starting pitcher.
From 1997 until 2000, you had three complete misses and pitcher Seth Etherton, who was a -0.7 WAR in his 23 big league games.
Dating back to 1996, you have the best player selected in the last 45 years in RA Dickey. That comes with an asterisk of sorts because he had to make it as a knuckleball pitcher and his first decent season came 14 years after he was picked. Prior to 2010, he had an 0.9 WAR over seven seasons in the majors.
I don’t want to go too far back because the scouting methods have changed drastically over the years. The best ever 18th overall pick in 58 years is Willie Wilson for the Kansas City Royals in 1974. Any fan would take his career as an outcome for this year’s first round pick, but the rest of the players on the list include 20 players who never made the majors (24 if you include the last four drafts), plus 12 players who ended up with a negative WAR. Dickey and Wilson combined for a 70 career WAR, while everyone else had a 90.9 combined WAR. For reference, Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, Cy Young and Barry Bonds each had more WAR than every 18th overall pick combined.
For the Pirates, this is just their third 18th overall pick. They got Willie Greene in 1989 and used him soon after to get Zane Smith for the playoff run. In 1977, they picked high school outfielder Anthony Nicely and he topped out at High-A due to injuries.
So it’s possible to get a solid MLB player with the 18th overall pick, but you’re more likely to end up with a bench player if history holds up. You also have about a 35% chance of missing with the pick completely. That shouldn’t ruin your interest in the draft because you still want them to get the best player available with the first pick and every pick after, increasing their odds of getting value from a draft that has them with one of the bigger bonus pools.
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 6-2 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night. The Pirates will send out Joe Musgrove tonight for his fifth start. He has gone at least six innings in each of his starts, giving up a total of five earned runs. The Dodgers will counter with Clayton Kershaw, who has made just two starts this season. He gave up two runs over seven innings in his season debut on April 15th, then followed it up six days later with two runs over six innings.
The minor league schedule includes Mitch Keller, who is coming off of his best start. He threw six shutout innings in his last game, while striking out eight batters. Altoona’s Pedro Vasquez threw six shutout innings on one hit and one walk in his last start. Bradenton’s Oddy Nunez has walked at least four batters in three of his four starts. Osvaldo Bido makes his fifth start for Greensboro. He has an 0.40 ERA in 22.2 innings, with a .132 BAA and an 0.71 WHIP.
The full 2019 Pirates Prospects Prospect Guide is now available, up to date as of April 3rd, with every player in the minor league system. Includes full reports on the top 50 prospects, reports on over 150 other players, as well as looks back at the recent drafts and international signing classes.
MLB: Pittsburgh (12-12) @ Dodgers (17-11) 9:10 PM
Probable starter: Joe Musgrove (1.59 ERA, 26:6 SO/BB, 28.1 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (10-10) @ Charlotte (15-7) 7:04 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Mitch Keller (2.70 ERA, 22:13 SO/BB, 20.0 IP)
AA: Altoona (10-10) vs Richmond (7-11) 4:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Pedro Vasquez (1.59 ERA, 11:2 SO/BB, 17.0 IP)
High-A: Bradenton (14-8) @ Daytona (12-10) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Oddy Nunez (4.95 ERA, 15:12 SO/BB, 20.0 IP)
Low-A: Greensboro (12-9) @ Hagerstown (10-12) 4:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Osvaldo Bido (0.40 ERA, 18:6 SO/BB, 22.2 IP)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Bradenton, Dylan Busby has been on an all-or-nothing tear, hitting six homers while struggling to make contact at times. His sixth homer tied him for the FSL lead. This replay is his fifth homer, complete with statcast. The 415 projected distances sounds a little light
As we get set to take on the @daytonatortugas on the road tonight, check out our Home Run Rewind from @dylanbusby28 in last night's 3-1 win over Fort Myers! pic.twitter.com/X9xsK9kz46
— Bradenton Marauders (@The_Marauders) April 25, 2019
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
4/26: Stephen Alemais placed on injured list. Adrian Valerio promoted to Altoona.
4/23: Nick Burdi placed on injured list. Pirates recall Steven Brault.
4/23: Brandon Maurer placed on injured list. Montana DuRapau added to Indianapolis roster
4/23: Kevin Newman sent to Indianapolis on rehab. Nick Franklin assigned to Indianapolis
4/23: Oneil Cruz assigned to Bradenton.
4/22: Blake Weiman added to Altoona roster. Angel German assigned to Extended Spring Training
4/22: Joel Cesar added to Bradenton roster. Gavin Wallace assigned to Extended Spring Training
4/22: Jose Osuna assigned to Bradenton on rehab
4/22: Gregory Polanco activated from injured list. Steven Brault optioned to Indianapolis
4/21: Elias Diaz activated from injured list. Jacob Stallings placed on injured list.
4/20: Starling Marte and Erik Gonzalez placed on injured list. Cole Tucker and Bryan Reynolds added to Pirates
4/20: Alfredo Reyes promoted to Indianapolis. Ryan Peurifoy assigned to Altoona
4/19: Lonnie Chisenhall assigned to Indianapolis on rehab
4/19: John Bormann activated from injured list. Joel Cesar assigned to Extended Spring Training
4/18: Ji-Hwan Bae moved to suspended list.
4/18: Montana DuRapau and Dean Lockery assigned to Extended Spring Training.
4/17: Nick Franklin assigned to Bradenton. Oneil Cruz assigned to Extended Spring Training
4/17: Alfredo Reyes assigned to Altoona. Robbie Glendinning sent to Bradenton.
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
One former Pittsburgh Pirates player born on this date, pitcher Paul Miller, who played for the Pirates from 1991 until 1993. He was a member of two playoff teams, though he never pitched in the postseason. Miller was drafted in the 53rd round and was one of the rare players drafted that late to make the majors. He played parts of three seasons, yet only got into a total of ten games. He threw 26.1 innings and had a 4.10 ERA.
On April 27, 1993, the Pirates beat the Braves by a 6-2 score in 11 innings and pitcher Tim Wakefield threw a staggering total of 172 pitches in the game. He pitched into the 11th and needed Paul Wagner to help him close out the game. Here’s the boxscore for that game.
Exactly 100 years earlier, the Pirates opened up their season at home against Cy Young and lost 7-2 in front of a crowd of almost 5,000 fans. You can find descriptions of each game in the link above, along with the 1893 lineup, each of whom has a link to their bio under their name.
102 years ago today, the Pirates and Reds were rained out at Forbes Field, which benefited both teams. The game was set to begin at 3:30 PM and the Reds arrived into town via train at 3:00 PM. The Pirates had multiple injuries and illnesses and were set to play with Otto Knabe, who wasn’t under contract yet, Jimmy Smith, who played just one game up to that point, and possibly a pitcher in the outfield. Roster limits were 21 players at that time, and the Pirates had to release pitcher Harry Moran earlier that day to get down to the limit. Moran never played for the Pirates, though he was around for the first two weeks of the season.
