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Morning Report: A Glance at Those Impressive Power Stats at Greensboro

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Greensboro has put up some very nice power stats so far this year, leaving the Grasshoppers at the top of the South Atlantic League in runs per game by a wide margin.  That’s in spite of a team batting average of .233 in a league that’s hitting .236.  Greensboro leads in home runs with 51 (all stats here are through Tuesday’s games), four ahead of the next highest total and a whopping 15 ahead of the third highest.  The team is second in the SAL in slugging and fourth in walks.

The caveat to all of this is that Greensboro plays in an extreme home run ballpark.  Despite having a very strong pitching staff (they lead the SAL in ERA), the Grasshoppers have allowed 35 longballs, tied for the league’s second-highest total, although not too far off the league average of 29.5.  The sample sizes are all very small at this point, but it’s worth looking at the power stats of some of the team’s hotter hitters more closely as a reality check.

The hottest hitter has been Rodolfo Castro. He started slowly, batting 189/205/351 through his first 11 games.  Since then, he’s hit a blistering 309/358/691 with 11 home runs in 26 games.  So how much has his home park affected these numbers?  An awful lot:  Castro is hitting 361/405/750 at home and 169/224/407 on the road.  For what it’s worth — and these are really small sample sizes — the switch-hitting Castro is batting 248/300/515 against right-handed pitchers and a blistering 367/389/867 (in just 36 plate appearances) against left-handed pitchers.

But it may not all be the ballpark.  Mason Martin, who’s tied with Castro for the team lead in home runs, has had a different experience.  Martin is batting 207/309/463 at home and 282/384/577 on the road.  Martin also has reversed his pattern from last year, when the pitchers seemed to catch up to him after seeing him for a bit.  He started off well in the SAL, but hit a serious slump after a few weeks and was sent to extended spring training in early June.  The Pirates moved him to Bristol and the same thing happened; after a good start, he stopped hitting, fading to a .596 OPS in August.

This year, Martin hit 208/264/333 in his first 14 games.  Since then, he’s hit 267/378/600, with ten homers in 28 games, so this time he seems to be adjusting to the pitchers.  He’s also slowly reducing his concerning strikeout rate, from 36.3% of his plate appearances in April to 29.5% so far in May.  He hasn’t done well with left-handers, batting 194/242/387 against them, compared to 254/367/549 against right-handers.  One other factor worth noting is that, although Martin is repeating the level, he was only there for 45 games last year, as opposed to Castro and Lolo Sanchez, who were there all year.

Speaking of Sanchez, he’s hit for surprising power, with a 323/404/510 line that’s benefited from a league-leading five triples.  He also has four home runs, three of them at home.  His overall home/road split, though, is minimal:  310/408/524 at home, 338/400/493 on the road.

Four other Greensboro hitters — Fabricio Macias, Brett Kinneman, Grant Koch and Patrick Dorrian — have combined for 17 home runs, which is just one fewer than the entire Lakewood team.  Of those, 13 have come at home, although that’s partly because Greensboro has played a lot more at home so far.  The four combined are slugging .413 at home and just .311 on the road.  Their ISO is .188 at home and .127 on the road.  So Greensboro’s park clearly is helping its hitters hit for more power overall.  It’s possible, though, that Castro and Martin, whose power is clearly very real, aren’t benefiting as much as the other hitters.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 9-3 to the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday night. Jordan Lyles gets the start today. He has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts, giving him a 1.37 ERA in May. Lyles is coming off of a 12 strikeout game against the San Diego Padres six days ago. He has a 1.05 WHIP and a .199 BAA this season. The Rockies will counter with 24-year-old right-handed pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 4.89 ERA in 38.2 innings, with 25 strikeouts and a 1.45 WHIP. His last start was five days ago in Philadelphia, where he allowed one run over five innings. He has a 2.95 ERA in four starts away from Coors Field.

The minor league schedule includes Brad Case going for Greensboro. He has an 0.69 ERA and an 0.67 WHIP in three May starts. Case ranks second in the South Atlantic League with a 1.63 ERA and first with an 0.72 WHIP. Indianapolis sends out Eduardo Vera, who had his worst start against Louisville (today’s opponent) last time they met. He gave up seven runs over five innings. He did better against them earlier in the year, allowing two runs over five innings. Bradenton sends out Domingo Robles, who leads the Florida State League with 56 innings pitched and ranks seventh with an 0.98 WHIP. In his last four starts, Altoona’s Scooter Hightower has allowed one run, six runs, zero runs and six runs. So he’s due for a strong game. Altoona has a morning start time today.

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MLB: Pittsburgh (24-22) vs Rockies (22-25) 12:35 PM
Probable starter: Jordan Lyles (1.97 ERA, 47:16 SO/BB, 45.2 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (24-18) @ Louisville (18-27) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Eduardo Vera (5.52 ERA, 35:12 SO/BB, 44.0 IP)

AA: Altoona (22-22) @ New Hampshire (21-22) 11:35 AM (season preview)
Probable starter: Scooter Hightower (5.63 ERA, 18:10 SO/BB, 38.1 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (25-20) vs Tampa (20-25) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Domingo Robles (2.57 ERA, 42:12 SO/BB, 56.0 IP)

Low-A: Greensboro (31-14) @ West Virginia (22-23) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Brad Case (1.63 ERA, 38:2 SO/BB, 49.2 IP)

HIGHLIGHTS

From Altoona a few days ago because nothing new has been posted the last two days, here is Hunter Owen hitting his tenth homer

Wilbur Miller
Wilbur Miller
Having followed the Pirates fanatically since 1965, Wilbur Miller is one of the fast-dwindling number of fans who’ve actually seen good Pirate teams. He’s even seen Hall-of-Fame Pirates who didn’t get traded mid-career, if you can imagine such a thing. His first in-person game was a 5-4, 11-inning win at Forbes Field over Milwaukee (no, not that one). He’s been writing about the Pirates at various locations online for over 20 years. It has its frustrations, but it’s certainly more cathartic than writing legal stuff. Wilbur is retired and now lives in Bradenton with his wife and three temperamental cats.

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