Does anyone remember Nick Burdi?
He started the 2019 season with so much promise, striking out 15 batters and walking one in just 7.2 innings of work. The 2017 Rule 5 pick was starting to look like a sleeper for the late innings, which came at a great time for the Pirates, since their late inning guys were either struggling or getting injured.
And then Burdi got hurt.
It was way back on April 22nd, a little over a month ago. It would be easy to forget about Burdi. There have been 7,526 injuries for the Pirates in the month since he went down.
It’s easy to lose track of when all of the injuries took place. I did the same thing on Sunday night.
The one guy the Pirates missed out on wasn't Keuchel. It was Gio Gonzalez. Signed for $2 M with $2 M in incentives on 4/27.
He had already spent a month getting built up, and made 3 starts in the minors. Gave up 2 runs in 11 IP with an 18:3 K/BB ratio in the last two.
— Tim Williams (@TimWilliamsP2) May 27, 2019
The current Pirates rotation has Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams on the injured list. Chris Archer returned from the injured list recently and has struggled. Joe Musgrove has been healthy this year, but has struggled this month as well. The Pirates have been using an opener for a few starts. Jordan Lyles is their ace. They’re now having to rely on Mitch Keller to provide a big boost for the rotation, which is never the situation you want to be in with prospects in their first run through the majors.
It’s easy to look at all of the above and quickly think “Man, why didn’t they go for Gonzalez?”
It’s probably because Gonzalez signed on April 27th, after agreeing to a deal on the 24th. Here was the rotation on April 27th:
Chris Archer – He was placed on the injured list on April 27th, going down with a thumb injury. He got hit hard the night before, but prior to that start he had a 2.74 ERA and a 4.23 xFIP on the season, which is far from the disaster he’s been since that start on the 26th.
Jameson Taillon – He had a 4.06 ERA and a 3.81 xFIP. The ERA was elevated from his previous start, and prior to that he had a 3.12 ERA and a similar xFIP. Taillon went down after his next start on May 1st, and could return to the mound in early July.
Joe Musgrove – After his start on April 27th, he had a 1.54 ERA and a 3.86 xFIP. Since that start, he has an 8.25 ERA and a 5.39 xFIP.
Trevor Williams – He was off to another good start, posting a 2.59 ERA, but having a higher xFIP at 4.52. He made four more starts, then went on the disabled list after his May 16th start, with the hope that he could return in mid-June.
Jordan Lyles – In any other season we’d probably be talking about how the Pirates got a steal in Lyles. This season you can’t even appreciate that because he’s the main guy keeping the rotation afloat. He had a 2.05 ERA and a 4.40 xFIP on April 27th. He’s had a 3.38 ERA and a 3.46 xFIP since then.
Nick Kingham – He was a reliever who only pitched 10.1 innings, but he had a 4.35 ERA and a 4.37 xFIP. Since then, he’s put up a 10.42 ERA and a 5.57 xFIP.
Steven Brault – He struggled, was optioned to the minors, then returned and struggled in one more outing before April 27th. He then started helping out the rotation, where he’s been up and down, with two good outings, one average outing, and two bad outings.
That was the situation when Gio Gonzalez signed. Musgrove, Williams, and Lyles were pitching well. Taillon was pitching well until his most recent start, and you’re not replacing him in the rotation. Archer just went down with an injury, and had good numbers prior to the final start, which could have been chalked up to the injury. And I could get into whether Nick Kingham or Steven Brault were good replacements, but it doesn’t matter, since Gonzalez agreed to a deal before Archer went down with his injury.
Since Gonzalez signed?
Taillon and Williams went on the injured list. Musgrove fell apart. Kingham fell apart. Archer returned and fell apart. Brault has been a mixed bag, which becomes a bad thing when the rotation is falling to pieces and Jordan Lyles is the only one there to try and hold things together.
It’s insane how this rotation looked great a month ago, and they look like a disaster right now. They were number two in the majors in ERA, number four in FIP, and 15th in xFIP. Since then they’ve been 28th in ERA, 17th in FIP, and 24th in xFIP.
I’m not making this a “Should they have signed Gonzalez?” article, despite the original tweet. It would have taken some amazing foresight, or just an extreme focus on depth to think that Gonzalez was an urgent need at the time. But when you’re building around your rotation, maybe you need to get all the depth you can. Or maybe you just need to revisit the idea of building around a position of players who are subject to injury more than any other position.
The point here is that everything has been a disaster since Gonzalez signed with the Brewers. Those events aren’t related, I don’t think, unless the Gonzalez signing is the new Miller Park curse.
With everything that has gone wrong in the last month, it’s easy to forget that this all happened in a month. It’s easy to forget that when Gonzalez signed, the Pirates had one of the best rotations in baseball. It’s easy to forget that when he agreed to a deal, the entire rotation was healthy.
It makes you wonder what might have happened had Gonzalez waited a week. What happens if he’s still available after the Archer injury, or after the Taillon injury? I’d have to imagine the Pirates would have easily offered up the $2 M plus $2 M in potential incentives to sign him after Taillon went down for a long period of time.
With all that has happened, the reaction is to look back and wonder what the Pirates could have done different to avoid all of this with the rotation. My first thought was signing Gonzalez, before I realized that this move would have required a crystal ball. Dallas Keuchel is a popular name, but even if he was signed when Archer went down, he’d be making his debut right about now, and none of this would have been avoided.
The focus is always to find where to place the blame, and find what could have been done better. In this case, you could argue that maybe the biggest thing to blame would be the idea of trying to compete without a fully rounded team, and relying on one section of that team to carry you, stay healthy, and avoid any prolonged struggles.
But with everything that has happened in the last month, I’m not sure anything could have prevented this. It’s almost a miracle that the Pirates are a .500 team after seeing two members of their rotation go down, and two more get shelled almost every start for an entire month.
It would have been great to have Gio Gonzalez to try and boost this group right now, but considering the timeline, that doesn’t seem realistic. And even if the Pirates did own a crystal ball to make that happen, you’d still have three rotation spots to worry about.
Hopefully they do another 180 and things look completely different this time next month.
PLAYOFF PUSH
Altoona is in fourth place in their division, 7.5 games back with 21 games remaining in the first half.
Bradenton is in second place in their division, three games back with 20 games remaining in the first half.
Greensboro is in second place in their division, five games back with 20 games remaining in the schedule.
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates won game one over the Cincinnati Reds 8-5 and lost game two by an 8-1 score. The Pirates are sending out Jordan Lyles for his tenth start tonight. He allowed six runs over 5.2 innings in his last outing. That followed one run and 12 strikeouts over seven innings in his previous game. He faced the Reds on April 4th and threw five shutout innings. The Reds will counter with Lucas Sims, a 25-year-old right-hander, who will be making his 2019 debut. He has faced the Pirates once in his brief MLB career (ten starts, 13 relief appearances). Last September he threw 1.2 shutout innings in relief against Pittsburgh.
The minor league schedule includes Max Kranick going for Bradenton, trying to build off of his one-hitter over seven innings last week. He had a 9.95 ERA in May prior to that outing. Brad Case, who has been one of the best pitchers in the system in May, makes his tenth start today. He ranks fifth in the South Atlantic League with his 2.10 ERA and first with an 0.79 WHIP. Eduardo Vera goes for Indianapolis, looking to get on track this season. He has given up four or more runs in five of his nine starts this season. Altoona has Scooter Hightower listed to start, but he was put on the Temporary Inactive List yesterday (that doesn’t mean he can’t be taken off today). They might go with Domingo Robles, who was just promoted from Bradenton and will be on regular rest.
The full 2019 Pirates Prospects Prospect Guide is now available, up to date as of April 3rd, with every player in the minor league system (NOTE: There have been just three players released and two added since then, so the book is still 99% up to date). Includes full reports on the top 50 prospects, reports on over 150 other players, as well as looks back at the recent drafts and international signing classes. Subscribers get 20% off the purchase of a book.
MLB: Pittsburgh (26-26) @ Reds (25-29) 6:40 PM
Probable starter: Jordan Lyles (2.81 ERA, 53:17 SO/BB, 51.1 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (28-19) vs Charlotte (27-21) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Eduardo Vera (5.69 ERA, 37:12 SO/BB, 49.0 IP)
AA: Altoona (23-26) @ Trenton (29-19) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Scooter Hightower (6.02 ERA, 21:12 SO/BB, 43.1 IP)
High-A: Bradenton (28-21) vs Lakeland (21-28) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Max Kranick (4.79 ERA, 33:15 SO/BB, 44.1 IP)
Low-A: Greensboro (34-16) @ Hickory (32-18) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Brad Case (2.10 ERA, 42:2 SO/BB, 55.2 IP)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Indianapolis, Will Craig’s 14th home run
.@WCraigers22 home run count thru May 26: 14
Last year, his 14th blast came on July 18.
Hunter Owen showing off some of that improved defense in Altoona
Robbed by @Hunter_Owen11
⬇️9⃣ Curve 7, Portland 2 pic.twitter.com/bNOmnunO4g
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) May 26, 2019
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
5/27: Pirates acquire Yefry Ramirez from Baltimore Orioles for cash or PTBNL.
5/27: Pirates recall Mitch Keller. Montana DuRapau optioned to Indianapolis.
5/27: Cam Vieaux promoted to Indianapolis. Steven Baron activated from injured list.
5/27: Ryan Valdes and Austin Coley promoted to Altoona.
5/27: Alex McRae added to 40-man roster and recalled. Doydas Neverauskas optioned to Indianapolis.
5/27: Pirates recall Richard Rodriguez to serve as 26th man for doubleheader.
5/26: Francisco Cervelli placed on 7-day injured list. Jake Elmore designated for assignment. Jacob Stallings and Jose Osuna added to Pirates.
5/25: Pirates add Rookie Davis and Dovydas Neverauskas. Chris Stratton placed on injured list. Michael Feliz optioned to Indianapolis. Lonnie Chisenhall moved to 60-day IL.
5/25: Pedro Vasquez promoted to Indianapolis. Ryan Peurifoy added to Altoona roster.
5/25: Ike Schlabach placed on injured list.
5/22: Ji-Hwan Bae removed from restricted list. Raul Siri assigned to Extended Spring Training.
5/21: Steven Baron placed on injured list. Richard Rodriguez added to Indianapolis roster.
5/21: Austin Coley added to Bradenton roster. Luis Nova assigned to Extended Spring Training
5/20: Nicholas Economos promoted to Bradenton.
5/18: Justin Harrer added to Greensboro roster. Jonah Davis assigned to Extended Spring Training
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
Five former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus a trade of note, which is where we will start. On this date in 1960, the Pirates made a deal that would help them on their way to their third World Series title and first in 35 years. They dealt two minor league players to the St Louis Cardinals for veteran pitcher Wilmer “Vinegar Bend” Mizell and infielder Dick Gray. Mizell would win 13 games that year for the Pirates.
Former players born on this date include 2000-01 first baseman Alex Hernandez, 1992 outfielder Kirk Gibson and 1906-07 pitcher James “King” Brady.
The other two players born on this date are 1947 pitcher Steve Nagy and 1957 pitcher Bob Kuzava. Both players passed away within the last few years and at the time they were among the oldest living former Pirates. Nagy made his big league debut with the 1947 Pirates, pitching six times, five of those games as a reliever. He would later pitch for the 1950 Senators. Nagy was 97 when he passed July of 2016. The younger Kuzava made his debut a year before Nagy and ended up pitching ten years in the majors, playing for eight different teams. He passed away at 93 in May of 2017, just two weeks shy of his birthday.
