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Morning Report: A Look at the Progress from the Top Ten 2018 GCL Pirates Prospects

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Today we look back at the top ten prospects list for the 2018 GCL Pirates. We did things a little different last year for our top ten lists. Any players who were in our mid-season updated top 50, kept their spots from that list. Then we rated the rest of the players to fill out the top ten. That’s important to keep in mind as you look at the list below. First, here is the list:

  1. Braxton Ashcraft
  2. Ji-Hwan Bae
  3. Michael Burrows
  4. Jean Eusebio
  5. Jack Herman
  6. Santiago Florez
  7. Samuel Inoa
  8. Pat Dorrian
  9. Noe Toribio
  10. Brad Case

Ashcraft was the easy choice for number one back because the Pirates just handed him a huge over-slot deal in the second round and we got an early look at the young 6’5″ right-hander. While we didn’t see the 95 MPH we read about in the scouting reports, we did see him hitting 92-93 MPH often in two looks before we did our mid-season update. Ji-Hwan Bae wasn’t far behind as the top international signing for the Pirates, receiving a $1,250,000 bonus in March. He also looked as advertised, showing nice defense at shortstop, plus speed on the bases and a line drive stroke at the plate with a high contact rate.

Burrows was an 11th round pick who received a $500,000 bonus to sign and we saw right away why the Pirates gave him that deal. He was clearly more polished than Ashcraft, with the biggest difference between the two being the bigger frame on the second round pick, which gave him a lot more projection. Jean Eusebio was the top signing during the 2016-17 international signing period and played all of the 2018 season at 17 years old. Those four were rated as top 50 prospects in our mid-season guide.

By the time our 2019 guide was finished, the #5 and #6 players on that list had moved ahead of Eusebio. There was reason to be cautious on Jack Herman back then. He was a 30th round draft pick, who received a low bonus and the sample size was very small at that point. We liked what we saw, but it was clearly too soon to have him among the top 50 prospects.

Santiago Florez was a late bloomer last year, adding to his velocity right before the season started, while also showing better control than in his rookie season with the 2017 DSL Pirates. He may have made the top 50 if we waited a week longer to rank players because he threw 11 shutout innings in the week after our voting was done. We heard about the improvements, but it wasn’t translating to the boxscore until that point.

While Eusebio hasn’t performed as hoped yet, he’s still an 18-year-old in the Appalachian League, so there’s plenty of time to see what he can do. As for the other five players on the list, they have all improved their stock this season. Ashcraft and Burrows got a push to Morgantown, when in the past they would have been at Bristol this year. Burrows looks fantastic so far, while Ashcraft has shown glimpses of why the Pirates are so high on him. His stats aren’t great early, but it’s important to remember that he’s basically a college freshman playing against college juniors and seniors in the New York-Penn League.

Herman got a promotion to Greensboro after missing some time in Extended Spring Training with a hamstring injury. He’s showing early power so far, but there still remains reason to be a little cautious with his 23:7 SO/BB ratio in 67 plate appearances. Just like when we didn’t rank him in the mid-season update last year, it’s a small sample size, so give it time. Florez tossed five shutout innings in his debut with Bristol last week, while hitting 95 MPH in his final inning. There’s a lot to like with the 6’6″, 19-year-old right-hander. Bae is playing well at Greensboro, getting on base, showing off his speed and playing solid defense, so he’s right where you would hope he would be at this point.

The bottom four on that list had two college players and two young international players. We rated Pat Dorrian and Brad Case more on their tools than results against younger players. Dorrian was traded to the Orioles just two days ago, while Case has made it all the way to Bradenton already. If we re-ranked the list, they would both move ahead of the two international players for now due to results on the field at a higher level. Noe Toribio has some upside and so does Samuel Inoa, but Inoa can’t stay healthy and Toribio hasn’t translated his raw talent to stats yet. The rankings for the top ten would change if I did them again right now, but the same ten players would still be on the list, and it would look like this:

  1. Burrows, 2. Ashcraft, 3. Bae, 4. Herman, 5. Florez, 6. Eusebio, 7. Case, 8. Dorrian, 9. Toribio, 10. Inoa

Burrows and Ashcraft are basically 1a/1b, while the top five might all be top 30 prospects right now. I say “might” out of caution that I’m just going by feel and not actually doing a top 30 of my own right now.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates won 10-0 over the Houston Astros on Thursday afternoon. The Pirates now head to Milwaukee for three games, where they will send out Chris Archer for the opener. He gave up one run over five innings in his last start six days ago against the San Diego Padres. Archer faced the Brewers on May 31st and allowed four runs over seven innings. The Brewers will counter with veteran right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, who has a 5.88 ERA in 67.1 innings, with 56 strikeouts and a 1.51 WHIP. He has failed to make it through five innings in each of his last three starts, dating back to May 31st when he lost to Archer. In those games, Chacin has given up 14 runs over 12 innings.

The minor league schedule includes Altoona’s Pedro Vasquez, who is having a phenomenal month of June. He has an 0.36 ERA in 25 innings, with a 23:3 SO/BB ratio and an 0.68 WHIP. Nicholas Economos gets the start for Bradenton. He tossed six shutout innings against Tampa in his last start, a team that he has allowed just two runs to in 20 innings this season. He has a 4.66 ERA against every other team he’s faced since joining Bradenton.

Colin Selby makes his third start against Lakewood today. In the first game, he allowed three runs over 6.1 innings and picked up a career high ten strikeouts. In his second game, he tossed 4.1 shutout innings. Dante Mendoza makes his second start for Bristol. He tossed four shutout innings in his debut and picked up six strikeouts. There’s no starter yet listed for Indianapolis, but Erik Gonzalez will be joining them on rehab today. He has been out since April 20th due to a left clavicle fracture. Morgantown has no starter listed, but it should be the third start from Michael Burrows, who was our Player of the Week on Monday.

MLB: Pittsburgh (38-41) @ Brewers (43-38) 8:10 PM
Probable starter: Chris Archer (5.56 ERA, 74:36 SO/BB, 69.2 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (41-36) @ Gwinnett (43-34) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: TBD

AA: Altoona (40-35) vs Binghamton (38-36) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Pedro Vasquez (2.24 ERA, 54:12 SO/BB, 68.1 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (40-36) @ Ft Myers (42-34) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Nicholas Economos (2.75 ERA, 33:16 SO/BB, 39.1 IP)

Low-A: Greensboro (48-29) @ Lakewood (31-47) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Colin Selby (3.70 ERA, 44:14 SO/BB, 41.1 IP)

Short-Season A: Morgantown (7-6) vs Williamsport (2-11) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: TBD

Rookie: Bristol (3-6) vs Princeton (4-5) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Dante Mendoza (0.00 ERA, 6:3 SO/BB, 4.0 IP)

GCL: Pirates (1-2) vs Orioles (3-0) 12:00 PM (season preview)

DSL: Pirates1 (10-13) vs Cubs1 (7-15) 10:30 AM  (season preview)

DSL: Pirates2 (20-3) vs Tigers2 (8-15) 10:30 AM  (season preview)

HIGHLIGHTS

From Indianapolis, Kevin Kramer makes a nice barehanded play

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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