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Morning Report: Bryan Reynolds Loses the Prospect Tag

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During the middle of Thursday’s afternoon game against the Atlanta Braves, Bryan Reynolds recorded his 131st Major League at-bat. According to the standards we use for our Prospect Guide, that means he is no longer a prospect, therefore won’t be in any future editions of the guide or on any top prospect lists. When you’re talking about a sample size of 131 at-bats, it’s rather small compared to how much someone could play over the course of a full season. That being said, Reynolds has had quite the start to his big league time.

At the end of the day yesterday, Reynolds had a .346/.404/.549 slash line in 146 plate appearances over 41 games. Some of you may have seen the tweet from MLB Pipeline two days ago about Reynolds and Cole Tucker graduating from their top 30 list. They use the MLB rules for rookies as well, so a player could drop from the list with 45 big league days, as long as none of them happened in September/October. Clay Holmes is also off of their list, but still needs to either pitch 9.2 more innings or make 12 more appearances, whichever comes first, to be dropped from our list. Tucker is 20 at-bats short for us still.

Mentioning Reynolds dropping off of the list now is great timing because the list is going to be getting stronger very soon, as each draft pick signs (bookmark our draft tracker). On top of the draft picks, there will also be players over from the Dominican Summer League, who play their first games in the U.S. Those two groups will add numerous players to our top 50, making the depth stronger. You have to wonder though, just how much stronger will it be compared to the start of the season?

Right now, the only two players to graduate from our list since the start of the season are Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman. The problem is that they represent 20% of our top ten list, and that’s really were the farm system rankings come from for most people. If you have a great top ten and horrible depth after that, your farm system is still going to rank high. Newman ranked seventh and Reynolds ranked eighth in our book. If Tucker loses his prospect status before our mid-season update, which I’m still on the fence about with Dickerson about to return and Kang not far behind (while also playing shortstop), then the system will really take a hit.

I don’t see a potential top ten prospect about to debut over from the Dominican. You have a trio of highly touted outfielders in Angel Basabe, Juan Pie and Daniel Rivero, but if they end up in the top ten, it will happen down the line, not in late July.

I haven’t put a second of thought yet into where first round pick Quinn Priester will end up, and I’m fighting the urge to do that as I type this sentence, but most first round picks are top ten prospects right away. He definitely wasn’t an overdraft, so it seems safe to say he makes the list. After him though, I don’t see it with other players. I like Sammy Siani, he was in our tiered draft rankings, but as a second round talent with some questions about his power, we will need to see him answer those questions first. I think he’s the second best prospect they took, so no one else should leapfrog him during a short-season league in pro ball.

The thing about prospect lists is they look more towards the future. Bryan Reynolds was still on it for more than half of yesterday. He had two hits in the game, so his value as a player obviously didn’t go down. He’s now just grouped with the Major League players instead. The farm system takes a hit, but the young controllable talent is exactly the same. He still has six full seasons after this year before he’s a free agent and he’s playing well. That’s something more important than the next potential Bryan Reynolds in the farm system, though it’s still nice to know who that player could be.

PLAYOFF PUSH

Altoona is in fourth place in their division, 8.5 games back with 13 games remaining in the first half.

Bradenton is in a two-way tie for first place with ten games remaining in the first half.

Greensboro is in second place in their division, six games back with 11 games remaining in the schedule.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates won 6-1 over the Atlanta Braves on Thursday afternoon. They now travel to Milwaukee for three games, which is the start of a ten-day, ten-game road trip. The Pirates will send out Rookie Davis for his first Major League start since 2017. He has made four appearances for the Pirates, giving up five runs over 7.2 innings, on eight hits (two homers), with three walks and eight strikeouts. The Brewers will counter with 26-year-old right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who has a 3.82 ERA in 68.1 innings, with 80 strikeouts and a 1.20 WHIP. His last start was in Pittsburgh six days ago when he served up six runs on ten hits over four innings. His prior start was one-hit ball over eight innings, with no walks and ten strikeouts.

The minor league schedule includes Mitch Keller making his second start for Indianapolis since his big league debut. On Saturday, he allowed two runs on three hits, with two walks and five strikeouts, in six innings. Keller started against Toledo (today’s opponent) in April and allowed one run over 5.1 innings. Max Kranick gets the start for Bradenton. He has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts. Batters are hitting .229 against him this year

Alex Manasa will start game one of a doubleheader for Greensboro. He has allowed exactly three earned runs in five of his last six starts. Conner Loeprich will start the second game. His only start this season was also during a doubleheader against Lakewood, and he allowed four runs over four innings. Sean Brady will start for Altoona. After giving up ten runs over 11 innings in his first two starts with the Curve, Brady has allowed five runs over 19.2 innings in his last three outings.

MLB: Pittsburgh (30-31) @ Brewers (35-28) 8:10 PM
Probable starter: Rookie Davis (5.87 ERA, 8:3 SO/BB, 7.2 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (34-23) @ Toledo (23-34) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Mitch Keller (3.40 ERA, 61:22 SO/BB, 53.0 IP)

AA: Altoona (27-29) vs Akron (30-28) 7:00 PM  (season preview)
Probable starter: Sean Brady (4.40 ERA, 17:7 SO/BB, 30.2 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (34-25) vs Dunedin (36-23) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Max Kranick (4.61 ERA, 45:19 SO/BB, 54.2 IP)

Low-A: Greensboro (39-20) @ Lakewood (21-38) 5:35 PM DH (season preview)
Probable starter: Alex Manasa (3.34 ERA, 60:12 SO/BB, 64.2 IP) and Conner Loeprich (3.29 ERA, 28:7 SO/BB, 27.1 IP)

DSL: Pirates1 (3-2) vs Indians/Brewers 10:30 AM (season preview)

DSL: Pirates2 (4-1) vs Giants 10:30 AM (season preview)

HIGHLIGHTS

From Indianapolis, Pablo Reyes hits his fourth home run of the season.

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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