For years, I’ve been trying to think of a good way to grade a team’s drafting ability. It’s not easy. Every time I start up a study, I am faced with a ton of questions.
Does a team get credit for a talent that went unsigned? After all, when talking about the ability to draft, we’re talking about identifying talent.
What happens with a player who was drafted by one team, but almost fully developed by another team? The Rays will do most of the development with Shane Baz, so does he count for the Pirates? The Pirates did most of the development with Josh Harrison. Does he count for the Cubs?
How long does a team get credit for a player? Do you get the production from the player’s entire career, or just the 0-6 years of control?
There are a lot of questions like this, and the big factor with all of them is that we grade drafts by the end result, which is production in the majors. But there’s a ton of development, and players changing teams, changing positions, and so on that impacts that final grade. And then we use all of that information to determine a team’s ability to identify talent on draft day, which doesn’t really accomplish what we’re hoping to accomplish.
The common narrative around the Pirates is that they can’t draft. That narrative has been around for years. That’s based on the return on the drafts in the majors, which hasn’t been great. The problem with this narrative is that it completely ignores the development aspect.
Some will argue that the Pirates can’t draft AND can’t develop, which covers the entire process. But that’s still a lazy approach, because you’re just assuming everything is wrong. And trust me, there are teams who can’t draft and can’t develop, and those teams don’t have the quality of farm system the Pirates have. That quality is middle of the pack right now, which could definitely be improved upon, but isn’t the range where you find the “can’t draft, can’t develop” teams.
So how do we isolate the drafting and evaluate it? Because the moment a player enters the system and starts playing games, the development aspect begins. The drafting aspect still gets credit — after all, you need raw tools in order to develop a productive MLB player — but how much?
I have my theory on what is wrong with the Pirates, and it has nothing to do with their ability to find talent, or develop it at the lower levels. If that were an issue, the Pirates wouldn’t have so many highly regarded prospects over the years. The problem is that those prospects either have been arriving with the Pirates and haven’t been as productive as expected, or they arrive with another team and make you wish the Pirates never gave up on them, because they are productive at their new location.
Think about the drafting and developing as two separate aspects, and think about what would happen if you upgraded just one of them.
If you think the problem is drafting, and the development is fine, then you’d expect that better drafting would lead to a lot of talented prospects making their way through the system and into the majors. The Pirates have seen this already, and not just with first round picks. They haven’t seen as much success into the majors on their team, but they’ve seen a lot of talented players make it up to that point with high regards.
Now assume the drafting is good, but the development is poor. If the development is horrible from top to bottom, then you’d probably be confused as to whether the drafting is the issue, or the development. But let’s say it’s like the Pirates right now, where they have a good development track record in the lower levels, and questionable results in the majors. You have everything you want in that scenario: drafting talented players, and then turning those players into top prospects. The only thing missing is that last step of development to get as much out of them in the majors.
Take a look at Wilbur Miller’s recap of Neal Huntington’s drafts. You’ll notice two things about that. First, the drafts were much stronger after 2011 than before. As I’ve written about in the past, the amateur scouts in 2008 and 2009 were mostly already in the system. By the time the 2011 draft came along, most of the scouts from that 2009 draft were gone, and the results were starting to look better, from draft day on.
The other thing that stood out is how many players are having success elsewhere. We’ve seen that with Gerrit Cole after getting traded to the Astros. We’ve seen it with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows in their brief time with the Rays. Even guys like Jordan Luplow, who had lower upsides, are living up to their upsides.
The tricky thing here is that the Pirates got results from these guys. Gerrit Cole looked like a number one starter from 2013-15, then didn’t adjust with the league to throw more breaking pitches until he went to Houston. Meadows had some brief success with the Pirates last year before the league adjusted. Glasnow was having success out of the bullpen before the trade, and didn’t do much different with the Rays after the trade.
The problem I’ve seen has been consistency. And that’s a problem that has hit other top prospects. Jameson Taillon has shown flashes of being a top of the rotation starter, but hasn’t been consistent. Some of that is due to injuries, and if I could tell you the specific developmental reasons, I’d be working with an MLB team right now.
Starling Marte has shown an ability to be a star player, but has been far from consistent with that. Gregory Polanco has done well the last two years, and most of his consistency issues are injuries, but he’s still not a guy you can rely on for X amount of production. I realize the last two weren’t draft picks, but we’re talking about development now, so the acquisition method doesn’t matter.
You look through the list of prospects the Pirates have developed and you either get guys who didn’t come close to their upsides, or guys who have briefly shown flashes of that upside, but lacked consistency. Then it’s frustrating to see some of those players go elsewhere and suddenly gain that consistency.
As for the guys who have worked out to their potential, the list is small and most of the guys who had success didn’t see that success over the long haul. Gerrit Cole and Starling Marte had a few years where they looked like impact guys, then declined after 2015. Josh Bell struggled for two and a half years, and is now looking like he might be the exception to all of this. But that requires him having this type of success for years. Jameson Taillon has seen good results, but not great results.
From the outside, there aren’t any answers on what can be done. Is this an atmosphere issue in the MLB clubhouse? Is it an issue with the upper level development, getting players ready for the majors? Or maybe Josh Bell is an early sign that the issue was MLB coaching. And it could be a mixture of all of these things and more.
The Pirates have several picks on day one tonight, followed by two more days of drafting in Neal Huntington’s 12th draft. I’m at the point where I think they will draft talented players, and develop most of those guys well in the lower levels. I do have concerns over their ability to maximize MLB upside once those guys arrive. And with a large group of talented prospects in the upper levels — Mitch Keller, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer, and so on — I have a feeling that by the time the 2019 picks are in the upper levels, we’ll have better answers to the source of the Pirates’ development problems.
PLAYOFF PUSH
Altoona is in fourth place in their division, 9.5 games back with 16 games remaining in the first half.
Bradenton is in a three-way tie for first place with 14 games remaining in the first half.
Greensboro is in second place in their division, five games back with 15 games remaining in the schedule.
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 4-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday afternoon. The Pirates have off today, then they host a three-game set against the Atlanta Braves, starting on Tuesday night. Steven Brault is scheduled to start against lefty Max Fried.
The minor league schedule includes Indianapolis sending out Eduardo Vera, who has allowed 13 runs over 15 innings in three starts against today’s opponent, Louisville. He has been limited to five innings in all three outings. Bradenton will send out Hunter Stratton, who allowed one run over 4.1 innings of relief work in his last outing. This will be his first start of the season. Greensboro sends out Brad Case, who allowed two runs on three hits in his last start. He had a 2.21 ERA, an 0.77 WHIP and a 28:0 SO/BB ratio in 32.1 innings in May. Altoona doesn’t have a starter listed. (James Marvel has been named the starter this morning)
The full 2019 Pirates Prospects Prospect Guide is now available, up to date as of April 3rd, with every player in the minor league system (NOTE: There have been just three players released and two added since then, so the book is still 99% up to date). Includes full reports on the top 50 prospects, reports on over 150 other players, as well as looks back at the recent drafts and international signing classes. Subscribers get 20% off the purchase of a book.
MLB: Pittsburgh (28-30) vs Braves (32-27) 7:05 PM 6/4
Probable starter: Steven Brault (5.87 ERA, 26:18 SO/BB, 30.2 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (31-22) @ Louisville (23-33) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Eduardo Vera (6.41 ERA, 39:13 SO/BB, 53.1 IP)
AA: Altoona (24-29) @ Erie (25-25) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: James Marvel (3.81 ERA, 44:14 SO/BB, 59.0 IP)
High-A: Bradenton (32-23) @ Daytona (30-26) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Hunter Stratton (1.76 ERA, 31:10 SO/BB, 30.2 IP)
Low-A: Greensboro (37-18) vs Charleston (30-26) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Brad Case (2.21 ERA, 46:2 SO/BB, 61.0 IP)
DSL: Pirates1 (1-0) vs Dodgers Shoemaker 10:30 AM (season preview)
DSL: Pirates2 (1-0) vs Royals2 10:30 AM (season preview)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Altoona on Saturday night, Hunter Owen walks it off
Send us
Logan Hill triples in a run
Shopping at the GAP on a Saturday night@HillSan33 legs out an RBI triple and we're up 1-0 after 1⃣ pic.twitter.com/4UtMZNIAJ8
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) June 1, 2019
Owen singles in Hill
Two-out
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
6/2: Pirates release Randolph Gassaway
5/31: Pedro Vasquez and Alfredo Reyes assigned to Altoona. Adrian Valerio and Ryan Valdes assigned to Bradenton.
5/31: Jack Herman assigned to Greensboro. Brett Kinneman assigned to Extended Spring Training
5/31: Allen Montgomery added to Bradenton roster
5/30: Connor Kaiser activated from Greenboro injured list.
5/29: Joe Jacques promoted to Bradenton.
5/29: Jake Elmore sent outright to Indianapolis.
5/28: Mitch Keller optioned to Indianapolis.
5/28: Alfredo Reyes promoted to Indianapolis. Domingo Robles promoted to Altoona.
5/27: Pirates acquire Yefry Ramirez from Baltimore Orioles for cash or PTBNL.
5/27: Pirates recall Mitch Keller. Montana DuRapau optioned to Indianapolis.
5/27: Cam Vieaux promoted to Indianapolis. Steven Baron activated from injured list.
5/27: Ryan Valdes and Austin Coley promoted to Altoona.
5/27: Alex McRae added to 40-man roster and recalled. Doydas Neverauskas optioned to Indianapolis.
5/27: Pirates recall Richard Rodriguez to serve as 26th man for doubleheader.
5/26: Francisco Cervelli placed on 7-day injured list. Jake Elmore designated for assignment. Jacob Stallings and Jose Osuna added to Pirates.
5/25: Pirates add Rookie Davis and Dovydas Neverauskas. Chris Stratton placed on injured list. Michael Feliz optioned to Indianapolis. Lonnie Chisenhall moved to 60-day IL.
5/25: Pedro Vasquez promoted to Indianapolis. Ryan Peurifoy added to Altoona roster.
5/25: Ike Schlabach placed on injured list.
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
One former Pittsburgh Pirates player born on this date, plus two trades of note and some old draft news. The only former Pirate born on this date is second baseman Nelson Liriano, who played for the 1995-96 club.
In 2009, the Pirates traded Nate McLouth to the Braves for Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez, a trade that worked out well. Exactly 103 years earlier, the Pirates dealt young Ed Karger to the Cardinals for veteran pitcher Chappie McFarland in a deal that didn’t go well. Karger went on to play until 1911 and he posted a career 2.79 ERA, while McFarland lasted six games in Pittsburgh before being put on waivers.
The Pirates have drafted some players of note on this date, taking Ryan Doumit during the second round of the 1999 draft and Jeff King as the first overall pick in 1986, the same year they took Stan Belinda in the tenth round and Jeff Banister and Rick Reed with back-to-back picks, going in the 25th and 26th rounds. In 1998, the Pirates pulled off some late round magic, taking Dave Williams, Joe Beimel, Jeff Bennett and Mike Johnston with consecutive picks in rounds 17 through 20.
On this date in 1955, the Pirates defeated the Reds by a 7-6 score, collecting 18 hits in the game. The day included Vern Law throwing 5.1 innings of relief for the win, and the Pirates scoring the walk-off run on a bases loaded single in the ninth by catcher Hardy Peterson, just his second RBI of the season. Roberto Clemente and Dick Cole each had three hits, while Dale Long had four hits. You can see the boxscore here.
