It doesn’t always work out that you have a need in the majors and a top prospect at the top of the minors ready to help out. Fortunately for the Pirates, that’s exactly their situation right now.
The two biggest needs for the Pirates heading into the 2020 season are in the rotation and at third base. Their rotation was horrible this year, decimated by injuries and poor performance. They ranked last in the majors at third base production, while ranking near or at the bottom in defense and most offensive categories.
Mitch Keller has already arrived in the majors, and was showing some promise in the rotation at the end of his first half season. Ke’Bryan Hayes is in Triple-A, and is the answer for the third base hole, although he won’t be up at the start of the 2020 season, as he needs more time in Triple-A.
While it’s good to match a need with your top prospects from Triple-A, the Pirates need to have a smart approach this offseason when thinking about that need.
The 2015-16 offseason has been brought up to no end over the last few years, and to this date there are some people who don’t realize what the problem was that offseason. It wasn’t that the Pirates cut payroll following a 98 win season. Their payroll actually went up, and was higher in each of 2016 and 2017 than it was in 2015.
The problem heading into 2016 was that the Pirates relied too much on their prospects.
They had a need in the rotation. They had two top starting pitching prospects in Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. But neither would be up until the middle of the season, at best. So they added Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong as their offseason starters, getting a much lower upside than some of their previous starting pitching additions like Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, and A.J. Burnett. The Pirates were banking on Taillon and Glasnow, while adding lower upside options to bridge the gap until those prospects arrived.
We saw the flaw in this. Glasnow wasn’t really ready in 2016, and when he did pitch, he was league average, and not the big boost the rotation needed. Taillon was above average, but it wasn’t enough, especially with the struggles from Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole.
The Pirates did correct this approach prior to the 2018 season. They had just traded Andrew McCutchen and had a few lower upside options on the team who could take the starting outfield job until top prospect Austin Meadows arrived. Instead, they traded for Corey Dickerson, hoping to get a legit starter at the position, rather than waiting for Meadows.
Dickerson worked out well, and the Pirates could take their time with Meadows, allowing him to break in to the majors only when he was ready, rather than creating a situation where the Pirates needed him up, with calls to rush him to the majors.
The Pirates need to take the same approach this year with Keller and Hayes. Treat Keller like a back of the rotation guy, rather than a solution to the top of the rotation. Treat Hayes like a Triple-A depth guy who you turn to only in the event of a major injury.
If Keller does pitch like a top of the rotation guy, you’ve got a bonus, since you were only counting on him for back of the rotation numbers. Those expectations also protect you if he struggles in his first full MLB season.
If Hayes does emerge as a starting option sooner, rather than later, and forces himself into the lineup, then you’ve got a good depth problem to deal with, which isn’t a bad thing. And if he isn’t ready, then you weren’t counting on him outside of emergencies this year.
Keller and Hayes are great prospects to have joining the MLB team, but until they’re established in the majors, they should be treated as a bonus, with their likely upside production not counted on for the team to win.
SONG OF THE DAY
DAILY QUIZ
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
By John Dreker
Six former Pittsburgh Pirates born on this date, starting with one of the best outfielders in team history.
Andrew McCutchen turns 33 today. He debuted with the Pirates in 2009 and lasted until 2017. In his nine seasons he hit .291 with 203 homers, 814 runs scored, 725 RBIs and 171 stolen bases. He was the 2013 NL MVP, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and a five-time All-Star. He ranks fourth in team history in homers, ninth in doubles, tenth in total bases, seventh in walks and seventh in extra-base hits.
Gene Tenace, C/1B for the 1983 Pirates. In the last season of his 15-year career, Tenace hit .177 in 53 games for the Pirates. In 1,555 games, he hit 201 homers and twice led the league in walks. He was a 1975 All-Star and the 1972 World Series MVP.
Myrl Brown, pitcher for the 1922 Pirates. Made it to the majors at age 27 and only lasted one season, debuting in August. Posted a 3-1, 5.97 record in 34.2 innings.
Homer Hillebrand, two-way player for the 1905-06 and 1908 Pirates. He had an 8-4, 2.51 record as a pitcher and he hit .237 in 47 games. Hillebrand is one of four lefty catchers in team history.
Dave Anderson, pitcher for the 1890 Alleghenys. During the worst season in team history, Anderson went 2-11, 4.67 in 13 starts. The rest of his big league career consisted of 42.1 innings for the 1889-90 Philadelphia Phillies (known as the Quakers during that time).
Ad Gumbert, lifelong Pittsburgh native, who pitched for the 1893-94 Pirates. Gumbert went 26-21, 5.71 during two of the biggest years of offense in baseball history. He won 123 games during his nine-year career. He’s part of a unique family in Pirates history. His older brother Billy Gumbert pitched for the Pirates in 1890 and 1892. Their greatnephew Harry Gumbert pitched for the 1949-50 Pirates.
