How Often Do the Top Minor League Hitters Make it to the Majors from Each Level?

Last week we completed an in depth look at the success rate of players making it to the majors from the Dominican Summer League, using a few different criteria to look at the players. One of those ways was checking out to top 20 hitters (sorted by OPS). We found that only 9% of those players made it to the majors, and only 5% contributed positive value of any kind (more than 0.0 WAR).

Those results got me thinking about other leagues, so I wanted to see how the top hitters did from other leagues that have affiliates of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

I looked at the Gulf Coast League, New York-Penn League, South Atlantic League, High-A (explained below) and the Eastern League. I left out Triple-A/International League because there are too many veteran big league hitters among the top hitters each year, and I didn’t include the Appalachian League because the Bristol Pirates only existed for two seasons during the 2006-2015 time-frame that I’m using here. For High-A, I switched from the Carolina League to the Florida State League when the Pirates switched leagues during the 2010 season.

This list here is a look at the amount of hitters each year from the league’s top 20 OPS leaders (using Baseball-Reference), who made it to the majors, regardless of value. It’s only in comparison to the 9% number that we got from the DSL. The reason I’m doing it that way is just the time it takes to put all of this together for five different levels. What you see here is the odds of a top 20 hitter making it to the majors as we work our way up the system, with year-by-year results. I stopped at 2015 because it’s a ten-year period and those players have had plenty of time to get to the majors. Maybe 2-3 more sneak into the big leagues, but it won’t be a significant number.

Gulf Coast League/Rookie League: 21% (42 out of 200)

2006: 4
2007: 3
2008: 3
2009: 5
2010: 6
2011: 4
2012: 3
2013: 8
2014: 3
2015: 3

New York-Penn League/short-season Class-A: 30% (60 out of 200)

2006: 7
2007: 2
2008: 7
2009: 5
2010: 5
2011: 8
2012: 7
2013: 5
2014: 7
2015: 5

South Atlantic League/Low-A: 50.5% (101 out of 200)

2006: 10
2007: 9
2008: 12
2009: 7
2010: 8
2011: 9
2012: 13
2013: 11
2014: 14
2015: 8

Carolina League/Florida State League/High-A 46.5% (93 out of 200)

2006: 9
2007: 5
2008: 5
2009: 8
2010: 11
2011: 9
2012: 8
2013: 13
2014: 13
2015: 12

Eastern League/Double-A: 70% (140 out of 200)

2006: 12
2007: 15
2008: 16
2009: 12
2010: 14
2011: 14
2012: 11
2013: 15
2014: 16
2015: 15

Summary

I expected a gradual climb as you go up the chart. My guesses ahead of time for the GCL (20%) and the Eastern League (75%) were basically right on the mark, and my NYPL guess was exactly right, but then my brain exploded with the Low-A and High-A success rates. How is having success of High-A not a better indicator of future success than doing well at Low-A? My only guess is that players seem to get held back more in High-A, while better players at a younger age are more likely to skip that level, or spend so little time there that they didn’t qualify for the results.

I expected the summary to just state the obvious, the better you do at a high level, the more likely you are to make the majors. That appeared to be a safe assumption through the bottom three levels, and even Low-A kept up that pattern, then brain explosion.

In case you were wondering (because I was), Triple-A leaders made it 97% of the time. Like I said though, a good portion of those players made the majors first before their big season at Triple-A.