New Mock Draft and Updated Rankings

Baseball America expanded their top draft prospect rankings out to 500 players yesterday, and Keith Law from The Athletic posted his second mock draft on Tuesday morning connecting the fourth overall pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates to a player we have heard about before.

Starting with BA, there wasn’t much change on their list at the top, but this is now the most comprehensive list you will get for draft picks. On top of the massive expansion to the backside of the list, they also added in scouting grades and risk factors for the players, along with a chart explaining the grades in relation to their potential in pro ball. The first change on the list doesn’t come in until the 14th overall player, which is Cole Young, the local high school shortstop, who we profiled here. Their fourth overall ranked player is still Termarr Johnson.

Law put together his list based on talks with scouts, executives and other sources (his words). He has the Pirates going with Cam Collier, who we profiled here. Collier has been loosely connected to the Pirates before as a bit of a savings pick that would allow them to spread around their bonus pool like they did so well last year by picking up huge upside players after the first pick. Law notes that Collier has picked up a little steam recently due to strong play/reports after his college season ended. That might take away some of the potential savings, but it would also push him closer to being a better pick in the fourth overall spot. BA has him ranked tenth overall, so it’s not a huge reach, especially if he’s impressing this late.

The first three picks in Law’s draft are Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday and Elijah Green, three players who have been rated highly together for the last two months (even longer for Jones and Green).

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2022 Draft
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roibert.kasperski

Trey can not be happy with you John………Your relatives are all talking to lawyers as we speak!!

jaygray007

Just a reminder to everyone here before anyone overthinks things, it’s okay to have more than one good player at a position in your organization 🙂 These things work themselves out.

AdministrativeSky236

Pounding the table!

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

haha knew you’d be happy to see that

agent00

law keeps the pirates-collier connection going…..hmmmm. i remember when law called the tony sanchez pick all those years ago

jaygray007

He was also perhaps the first guy to call Davis as a #1 candidate last yr, but that was more of a “we have collectively underrated Davis in my opinion” article than a “the pirates are linked to davis” article.

roibert.kasperski

Here is to hoping that if the Bucs do in fact draft the son of Lou per the keen eye of Mr . Law, I hope he turns out much better than Tony did……………….

jaygray007

I really like the concept of Cam Collier. one of the prettiest swings by an 18 yr old i can remember seeing.

I’m also biased toward lefties who play RH throwing positions, and sons of major leaguers. So….

AdministrativeSky236

He’s only 17! Makes playing JUCO and in the cap even more impressive imo

jaygray007

oh absolutely. age vs competition is a huge variable.

I think Collier is currently “my guy”.

NMR

It’s absolutely a huge variable!

No other chance Cole Tucker would’ve been so wildly overvalued otherwise.

Might be a lesson here…

jaygray007

Big difference being that Collier has a 3x prettier swing than what Tucker has ever had, even 8 yrs after being drafted haha.

There’s definitely a good point in there somewhere though.

NMR

For me this hits on the “why” of age relative to competition.

What are the developmental reasons that matters?

I think the argument is that the additional developmental time one has when they are younger yet performing against competition older than them allows for more physical development, right?

Well, uh, how much more physical development does a dude like Cam Collier have to do?

Seems we run the risk of falling into the the little leaguer who hit puberty early situation with some of these guys who are just far more physically developed. If Collier has the body of a 19 year old, hell, even older than that, how much does it really matter that he’s several months younger than most of his HS draft peers?

Another way I think of this is…when was the last time you ever heard a successful big leaguers age relative to competition on draft day mentioned? Feels like one of these dogmatic things that’ve grown into the prospect lexicon over the last few years without any real rigorous understanding of exactly how much value it may provide.

jaygray007

i dunno if it’s all about physical development or not. definitely agree that that portion is null when talking about a husky kid like Collier.

Maybe you missed this, but Collier actually reclassified, got his GED and is playing in college right now. so he’s actually a 17 yr old playing vs college players, a La Bryce Harper. I think if Collier is hitting vs college players right now, that’s meaningful in a “how good is this player going to be” model, just for baseball ability reasons, not “he’ll get bigger and stronger” reasons.

I think i’m with you in thinking that i dont care a ton about a 17 yr old playing against 18 yr olds in HS. maybe as a tiebreaker or something i can see it.

Last edited 13 days ago by jaygray007
NMR

Fair enough, I think I just disagree with the cause/effect.

Big leaguers are insanely good at doing baseball things!

The concepts of projection and upside are so tied together precisely because, IMO, there’s inherently a limit to how well doing baseball things gooder can take a player.

The Cam Collier conundrum seems to be that even his biggest supporters, who universally laud him precisely because of age relative to competition, do not actually project him to be a notably good big leaguer? Like, nobody out here saying he’s a future double plus hitter or will develop double plus power or become an elite defender at a premium position let alone any combination of those things.

Doesn’t that make the entire age relative to competition question academic? If the kid isn’t projected to get demonstrably better, then what’s the point?

Last edited 13 days ago by NMR
redwards60

No comparison other than age. Tucker was projected at around #240 as a draft prospect, Collier is top 10.

Scrappy2499

If they can’t pick up Jones or Holliday, then I am starting to like what we are hearing about Collier.

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