Final Mock Drafts from MLB Pipeline

MLB Pipeline has been posting new mock drafts all spring/summer leading up to today’s draft. Their mocks have switched each week between Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis making the picks. In their final mock draft today, both Mayo and Callis submitted first round picks. The Pittsburgh Pirates pick fourth overall shortly after the draft begins at 7 PM tonight. Then later tonight they will make the 36th and 44th overall picks. We will have coverage of all 21 picks they make over the next three days here, along with thoughts on the draft and then we will be tracking those picks as they sign.

Both Mayo and Callis have the Baltimore Orioles selecting Druw Jones with the first overall pick. The are also on agreement with the Arizona Diamondbacks selecting Jackson Holliday with the second pick. They differ with the Texas Rangers and the third pick just ahead of the Pirates. Mayo has Kevin Parada and Callis has Elijah Green. With the Pirates pick, both were back in agreement, predicting that the Pirates will take Georgia prep second baseman Termarr Johnson.

Johnson has been mentioned numerous times with the Pirates throughout the year, either ranking fourth overall, or going to them in a mock draft. Callis notes that he believes the Pirates are locked in on Johnson, while Mayo notes that it is possible that Zach Neto takes a deal to sign in the top ten picks. That’s something we touched on yesterday.

Here’s our look at the top draft prospects available covering all of the names mentioned above.

Here’s our draft primer, with information on the three-day event.

Here’s our roundtable discussion of who we think the Pirates should pick.

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AdministrativeSky236

Sorry in advance scott… but if we could trade draft picks wouldnt it be fun to jump up for lesko?

b mcferren

player comp to Freddy Sanchez?

AdministrativeSky236

In my mind, the mets just took parada knowing they are going to have to flip alvarez for soto if they enter that sweepstakes…

HeisenbergWW

Anyone care to speculate… will Johnson get full slot value at #4 ?

SouthernBuc

I am guessing close to full slot if not full slot. Sounds like he was expected to go anywhere from 3 – 6 which doesn’t guarantee anything, but does imply they did not select him earlier than expected to save money.

Iowasteel

Slot or close to it. He wasn’t getting past pick 5 or 6, so no reason for him to give a discount.

b mcferren

without a doubt he gets it all or goes to college

CTBucco

Has TJ signed yet?

Wilbur Miller

According to Harold Reynolds, if he’s not in the majors by tomorrow he’s a failure.

SouthernBuc

I tired quickly of the ‘analysts’. I guess this is not the night to say negative things about the draftees, but so far only guaranteed Hank Aarons, Joe Morgans, or Mike Trouts have been drafted.

Iowasteel

Draft started at 7:05. 3 minutes between picks. It has taken 45 minutes to make 6 picks. Only MLB can drag things out like this

CTBucco

By my calculations, our pick #36 should be at about…mmm….Thursday.

CTBucco

Will the Cubs torment us for years to come with Collier or Parada or Lee?

CTBucco

Horton? There’s gonna be another team looking for over slot guys later.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Hell yeah. I like it

roibert.kasperski

The pick is in!!

jtkuch

Loved everything he said in that interview. You can tell how much this means to him and that he has a ton of confidence too.

CTBucco

At least it wasn’t Neto. Okay. I hope there’s a power bat a la Melendez taken somewhere.

I hope they can save enough to add some kids that slide later.

Wilbur Miller

This kid wants to play ball. No Appel crap.

AdministrativeSky236

Im happy

phieralph

Me too. Teared up seeing him with his dad. I’m bout it. Like I said, seems like a really good kid.

Bitterne_Parker

It’s Johnson according to Longenhagen on his live chat

JimEastTennessee

Johnson!

1979andCounting

Termarr! Future batting champ!

AdministrativeSky236

Trying to not have too many expectations going here….

CTBucco

C’mon Green.

waitwhat

Rocker and Leiter just can’t be separated.

roibert.kasperski

who’s it gonna be????

phieralph

WHAT DO WE DO NOW

b mcferren

go Green

b mcferren

told you Rocker was in demand

phieralph

Green?

AdministrativeSky236

Rocker….

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Biggest wow of the draft.

AdministrativeSky236

3 pitchers in the top 10 goes against most every mock so far…

1979andCounting

Harold Reynolds called this. High risk with a shoulder.

phieralph

I’m having trouble quieting all the Bomb for Elijah Green stuff from last year. What happened with that? And him being compared to Bonds? Did he fall off or have other guys really just taken off?

I saw a special w Temarr Johnson and a player named “Cam Collier”? Extremely impressed with Johnson’s humility and standing as a person. When Reynolds asked who was the better hitter, Johnson immediately said Cam. And then went on for awhile about how good of a player he was. Very impressive interview.

I know nothing of him as a ball player but seems like a really good kid.

AdministrativeSky236

Arizona’s pick has been in for 5+ minutes, cant we get that announced before the interviews

phieralph

Good Lord. Matt Holliday next to Jackson is quite a contrast. These are kids.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Matt Holiday

phieralph

Did he juice? Man looks huge

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Expert’s drafts already down the drain lol

AdministrativeSky236

Everyone and their mother had jones to arizona, hoping they go to someone else just for chaos sake

AdministrativeSky236

Pretty shocked with jackson holliday going first, didnt seem to be on anyone’s radar

patrick_kelly

Has he been in the top 5 of most mocks? I can’t recall him being there. Could help the Bucs pick!

AdministrativeSky236

Yeah hes usually ben 2-3, just never really for the orioles as it was either jones or savings pick

phieralph

Manfred with all the public speaking ability of my high school principal at graduation.

AdministrativeSky236

We getting a draft thread today or where do we talk about that?

Retire21

Green …

hoffmark83

Enough of the below slot B.S. We need quality not quantity.

AdministrativeSky236

I agree with this, though you could argue that last year was the quantity over quality approach by taking davis instead of meyer or leiter, but that draft has pretty glowing reviews. If we can sign multiple first round talent without swinging for the fences, that is quantity that i will take any day

patrick_kelly

Last year showed you could get quantity and quality. Had they taken Lawlar, that changes the whole draft for the Bucs. We probably don’t get half the prep guys we did.

clemo83

The biggest weakness of our farm system is top end talent. We certainly have plenty of depth. Would it be the worst thing to draft the player with most talent with the first pick? I loved our strategy last year, and if we pull something like that off again, I’ll be thrilled. Maybe it’s time to grab the best player available? It’d be difficult hard to stomach an Elijah Greene (for example) going to the Cubs at pick #7 and become a star just because we’re trying to get too cute. I don’t know the right move, just asking the question…

TNBucs

Until seeing the news that he’s out with a broken thumb, I hadn’t realized how well Harold Ramirez had been playing this season (wRC+ of 141 via MLBTR). I knew he’d been hanging on, but not that he had been excelling. Just a reminder that it can take awhile.

1979andCounting

This year, there is some comfort in letting the top 3 teams make mistakes, and BC by default falls into a great pick. Fingers crossed for Termarr.

Wilbur Miller

Semi-relevant to the whole prospect thing — Spencer Torkelson just got optioned.

Baseball is hard.

PirateRican21

The tigers are as close to competing as the Pirates and he was still optioned! Must be something major he has to work on.

TNBucs

Little different situation than Suwinski, though (and I have mixed feelings about whether Suwinski should have been optioned–I can see both sides). But whereas Suwinski had been worth over 1 WAR (1.1 on BR, 1.2 on FG), Torkelson has been below -1 (-1.4 on BR, -1.1 on FG). Jack’s OPS+ is exactly league average (100); Torkelson’s is 68.

One could make the case that Suwinski was simply in a prolonged slump (Trout went 0-26 earlier this season) and his overall stats justified giving him a chance to work through it at the MLB level. You can’t really make that case for Torkelson.

TNBucs

I’m rooting for it to be Parada, Johnson, or Lesko (assuming Jones and Holliday aren’t available), but if it’s Neto and we get Solometo and Chandler types later, I’ll be plenty happy.

skliesen

Only one pick will cause me to cringe…Neto.

If Pirates are prioritizing saving money over actual skills with the top pick, then for God’s sake take a flyer on a high risk/high reward player instead of another limited ceiling MI!

James_Robert5

His skills are outstanding

As a pitcher he was up to 94-95

Good speed

Doesn’t swing and miss much

He transformed his body after HS

ArkyWags

Small school, raked at the cape, supposed wonderful hot tool…sounds like Gonzales 2.0. Hard pass.

agent00

i see what you’re saying, but not every prospect with that profile is automatically going to be another gonzales.

besides. it’s still early for gonzo

ArkyWags

I’ll grant that it is. But I have a larger problem that it feels “safe.” And a guy who has a “high floor.” Both of those categories are a myth.

AdministrativeSky236

Ugh FG has us going with zach neto

AdministrativeSky236

In about 10 hours i will be convinced these are all great picks (hopefully), but i really hope we get a legit 4 pick that saves us some money for high ceiling pitchers to sign over slot later. That said, i will be sad if zach neto is who we end up with

docdon385

I sure hope BC has a better idea about what he wants to do than these “so called” draft experts do. Today Johnson, yesterday Collier, prior to that Lee no wait Prada. Could it be Neto or are they hiding interest in Green? These guys have absolutely no idea.

Suppose it plays out as they predict today. Either Green or Prada are there at #4 along with Johnson and Lee. Who do you pick? Regardless of which one the Pirates take, or if they decide to play a wild card and draft someone else, some people will rejoice while others will whine and complain.

Just remember that no one can predict who in this draft class will become the next star or who will be a complete bust. If history repeats itself, as it virtually always does, both of those scenarios will happen within the next five years. All any of us can do is try to embrace the pick and hope.

Colin

Who’s your pick?

leefieux

MLB mock drafts are right up there with NFL mock drafts. In other words, nobody has a clue. Heck, they can’t even agree on who goes #1 !!

HeisenbergWW

That’s what makes them fun. If there were a consensus top 5 picks that would be boring.

Wilbur Miller

Kiley has Termarr to O’s, although he adds they’re very uncertain still. He has Neto at 1-4 and thinks Collier buzz is Pgh FO misdirection.

The draft is increasingly looking like Spy vs. Spy.

Last edited 2 months ago by Wilbur Miller
JimEastTennessee

nice throwback

spy vs spy.png
JimEastTennessee

BC had everyone gasping with 1-1 last year; looks like he did okay. I am actually thinking Collier, but Johnson sure would not break my heart. BC doesn’t care what I think (so he told me on conference call today with Alfred E. Neuman)

Catch_22

Kiley and Longenhagen must’ve shared notes.

Has there been any coverage on Neto?

TNBucs

Neto performed well in the Cape Cod League last summer, and Ben has a track record of liking guys who performed well there (though I wonder if Gonzales’s struggles thus far has him reflecting on that).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=44956df2

AdministrativeSky236

I mean if that’s the gauge then we should be pounding the table for brooks lee! His numbers were so much better

James_Robert5

Much better?

Only 4 players had an OPS above 1.000

Lee and Neto were 2 of them

TNBucs

Lee is ranked higher but Neto would likely be much cheaper so you’d get a comparable player plus, presumably, better players in the picks that follow. (As an aside, while Lee’s numbers were better overall, Neto had a higher ISO and OBP than Lee–they seem very similar overall.)

Last edited 2 months ago by TNBucs
Wilbur Miller

Only recently. I don’t like pop-up guys much. The main buzz on him is below-slot.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

I liked Neto when I watched him, and wouldn’t necessarily HATE it. I just don’t think it’s the right pick at #4 .

Colin

I will honestly be nauseous if we draft Neto

ArkyWags

Same. It’s a galaxy brain pick.

skliesen

It would reek of smartest guy in the room type bullshit!

ArkyWags

Don’t get me wrong I’d be rooting for him. And if they pulled off some wild shit like getting Spencer Jones and a high falutin prep arm or two, maybe I’ll change my tune.

agent00

would be awful. you’d have to have serious confidence that a prospect like…..barreira would drop to your next pick so you can use those slot savings to sign him

worked out last year but idk

AdministrativeSky236

Also, we could just go college seniors for picks 4-10 ad use the extra 5% to sign him if we pick someone like temarr first so i hope thats not the move here

agent00

yes pretty much. taking the bpa really has gone out of style it seems!

CTBucco

I’ve said in the past that I would be content with Johnson, but the reality is that they will be able to pick one of Green or Parada. It turns out, I will be disappointed if they end up with Johnson. Yes, his hit tool is great. But unless he turns into a Joe Morgan or Altuve – a little guy with serious thump – I won’t be that happy. Parada and Green can be middle of the order power bats. And they can both flop. But watching the Bucs the last 3+ decades, middle of the order power bats seem like the tougher players to find. I’d rather take the chance to get Mike Piazza or Aaron Judge rather than the chance to get Altuve.

leefieux

Wasn’t Nicky the K touted to have a heckuva hit tool? Dustin Ackley’s hit tool was practically MLB ready. Pedro was supposedly closest to the majors. It’s a huge crap shoot!

CTBucco

Totally agree. That’s why I’m more inclined to try – and maybe miss – on the power bat projected to hit some versus the hit tool guy projected to “grow into some power”. There’s risk. If, say, BC takes Green and he flops while Johnson turns into Altuve, it would look bad. But what if Green turns into Judge – even if Johnson is Altuvesque?

PirateRican21

Forget the draft, even top ranked prospects. Jurickson Profar was the number rated prospect in all of baseball……

PiratePrimate

A second coming of Joe Morgan? Jose Altuve? Kirby Puckett? Yes, please!

CTBucco

Sure. But would you take Altuve over Dave Parker or Aaron Judge?

PiratePrimate

No but ask me if I’d take Morgan over those two.

Colin

I like it, let’s get this thing rolling already

agent00

yes. johnson is the way!

PirateRican21

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