Jose Quintana Might Be Traded, But Looks Like the Perfect Option for the 2023 Pirates

Jose Quintana may have made his final start of the 2022 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Last night, Quintana went 5.2 shutout innings against the Phillies, following seven shutout innings against the Marlins in his previous start.

On the season, Quintana has a 3.50 ERA in 103 innings, which is backed up by a 3.24 FIP and a 3.78 xFIP. If nothing else, Quintana has given the Pirates a solid starter to lead their rotation. The Pirates don’t have a contending rotation, but these numbers would qualify Quintana for a starting spot in such a rotation.

The one issue that could impact Quintana’s trade value is that he’s mostly doing this at PNC Park, which is very friendly to left-handed pitchers.

Quintana has a 2.42 ERA in 63.1 innings this year at home. On the road, he has a 5.22 ERA in 39.2 innings.

His road numbers are a smaller sample, which works two ways. First, it means that Quintana’s overall numbers are largely influenced by his home numbers. Second, it means a few bad outings can blow up the road numbers.

Quintana saw that this month, giving up ten runs in 9.1 innings combined to Colorado and Milwaukee on the road. Quintana has seen better starts on the road — his back-to-back outings in San Diego and Los Angeles were a better combo than Colorado and Milwaukee — though that’s where the questions come up.

If we were to use game score to get an overall feel for his success, Quintana has a game score of 50 or higher in half of his road starts. By comparison, he has a game score of 50 or higher in two-thirds of his home starts. Quintana has as many sub-50 game scores on the road as he does at home — despite four more starts at home.

Quintana’s value probably doesn’t change much over the last two outings. He’s shown that he can dominate at PNC Park. He’s even shown that he can dominate really good teams at PNC Park. Some of his best starts at home have come against the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Brewers. Even without the home park factor, that has to look good to a contender.

I have no doubt that Quintana will get traded. He probably won’t land much of a return, despite the overall numbers. Realistically, he’s more of a complementary piece to a contender, rather than a guy who could lead the way.

That said, if the contender was a team in Pittsburgh, it might be different.

This is Quintana’s age 33 season. He clearly has more left, and clearly benefits from PNC Park. His cost this year was $2 million, as he was coming off two down years since the pandemic. He’s bounced back this year to his pre-2020 value.

Quintana will probably cost more next year. He probably won’t be out of the Pirates’ price range. The Pirates are at the point where they need to get serious about upgrading the MLB team. That requires more than just getting help from the farm system. Quintana upgraded the 2022 roster, even though the 2022 Pirates aren’t contenders.

If the Pirates want to try and contend in 2023, they will need at least one veteran starter, and probably two. Quintana has shown that he can be a reliable starter, and will most likely be dealt in the next few days to a contender, where he can continue to display his value. After this season, the Pirates should look at him to help them try to contend in 2023.

With the way Quintana plays up at PNC Park, the Pirates could get an affordable starter who can fit in a contending rotation, and who can give their team specifically more value than others.

Regardless of what happens with Quintana over the next few days, the Pirates should bring him back in 2023.

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redwards60

The Red arguably got far greater value for Castillo then the Pirates got for Gerrit Cole. Reds got top flight prospects not spare parts. Musgrove turned out to be a quality pitcher, but he was dealt after 2 to 3 seasons.

Born4rf

It is past the time for the Pirates to be in the reclamation of old pitcher business. Top four reasons to trade Quintana regardless of the return:
1. This is his first season since 2016 where he was good, enough said.
2. I do believe we could get a reasonable return for him, think about Bryce Wilson, Chavis or Diego Castillo acquired for players of lesser value.
3. Without Quintana the Pirates have a rotation of Contreras, Keller, Brubaker, Thompson and Wilson w Burrows & Preister on deck. None of them are free agents for at least four years.
4. If you really love him he will still be a free agent in October. Don’t fool yourself that he really loves you.

Last edited 2 months ago by Born4rf
redwards60

You lost me when you included Wilson to make your point…

Born4rf

Last year Quintana‘s ERA was over six, he hasn’t had an ERA under four since 2016. his success is because nobody would give him a real contract last year and the dead ball. Frankly I would not trade Wilson for Quintana UNLESS I was in a playoff race. Sorry. Don’t hate me.

b mcferren

or the other to sub .700 ops players you mentioned

stop the madness – keep the players that are good

Born4rf

Castillo is doing about the same thing as a Oneil Cruz, that’s what happens when you play prospects. Unfortunately Chavis is our Only legitimate option at first base. I’m glad we have them both.

NMR

Kudos to Cherington & Co for finding and developing their first reclamation project.

Now take those lessons and get another, instead of committing 3 years to a guy in his mid-30s.

Embrace roster churn, it’s the only path forward.

emjayinTN

The way the Pirate Rotation is developing (possibly maturing) this year and the work of Bolton, Burrows, Priester and others at AA/AAA, this franchise cannot benefit from an extension to Quintana.

If he goes to the Yankees, they have a ton of pitching in their Top 20 Prospects – how about a look at their #21 Prospect JP Sears, a 26 year old LHP who pitched well in 9 Starts at AAA (1.67 ERA) and as a RP/SP (0.6 WAR) in brief exposure at the MLB level; #15 Randy Vasquez, RHP, 23, AA; #20 Justin Lange, RHP, 20, traded to Yankees from SD; #14 Brock Selvidge, LHP, 20

redwards60

Embrace perpetual losing

PirateRican21

Double A status, mission accomplished, but not stopping there!

SBRO

There’s a part of me that wants the return for Quintana to be so underwhelming that they actually try to negotiate an extension.

beaverjp

I have this fear that they’ll get less than holderman, would be totally good with sitting on quintana, do the pirates need more Max Kranick..isn’t it more useful to play chicken into a 45 level guy or bust and just use the access to quintana to negotiate with him.

MB21

Once again, I’m just dreaming of the day we are adding instead of subtracting. The reality is Q is on a one-year contract. Get what you can for him and when he leaves, thank him profusely, tell him he’s always welcome back (especially next year) and wish him the best in the playoffs this year. Treat him well and he may at least consider a return.

gosteelers69

It’s a no-brainer if they can get maybe a decent prospect in return, you’d have to trade him. And I’d also trade Bednar if they can get a couple of quality prospects. This team with those players can’t win, so you might as well make some trades. The Pirates aren’t going to contend in 2023 either. I say the reasonable timeline for contending is in 2024-2025 after our prospects have come up and have gotten some seasoning in.

arpavia11

Seems to me that every time that the Pirates have traded proven veteran players, they regress in the effort to convert the team to a winner. Trading Quintana is a big mistake. The team looses a proven player, a leader and a teacher. They should try to sign him to a two year deal.

robertkasperski

Maybe they did but he is intent on seeing what happens when he hits the market. That is what Cole was intent on and he was never going to extend with Pittsburgh. The Astros tried too, and they had the ability to meet his demands and he still did not consider their offers. If I am Reynolds, I don’t extend either as his first trip into the market will be his only real chance at his biggest contract due to his age. This most likely will be Quintana’s last hurrah as well due to his age. The Bucs will at least have a shot bidding unless someone throws crazy stupid money at him.

zach_wolfe

Trade him. Then try to bring him back in the off season, and trade for another mid rotation guy

Jordhu

If Quintana is worth more to the Pirates than what he can bring in return, then the logical thing to do is keep him and attempt to sign him to a 2-3 year contract in the offseason. Unfortunately, I’ve learned that logic often has little to do with the Pirates decisions.

joesolo6181

Pirates seem to be trending yet again to have the worst record in baseball. To bad, with the new draft lottery they will not get the first pick, if they do.

Catch_22

Forget Q. He’ll get 3 years and you’ll have another Liriano situation on your hands.

Think big…swing a trade for Tarik Skubal. Suddenly, you have a rotation of Skubal, Keller, Contreras and Brubaker.

Offer Avila Davis and see who blinks first.

AdministrativeSky236

I dont know about hank davis, but i do wonder what skubal would cost. Regardless of what the team could be rn, that kind of move is probably best suited for a team challenging for .500

JimEastTennessee

I had hopes of 2023 getting close to .500 ball again, but not sure the stalled development/injuries to multiple prospects will allow that to happen.
That said, Quintana likes it in Pittsburgh, and there is immense value in mentonship.

skliesen

I’m 100% on board with the Pirates adding a veteran LHSP next winter on a multi-year deal. Whether it’s Q or another guy who fits the mold, is not as important as bringing in a vet on a longer deal.

adicesa14

If I understand correctly, your proposal would be collusion. Yes, the preferred Pirate-centric outcome would be to trade Quintana for as much as possible and re-sign him in the off-season to a team friendly contact. In a perfect world, I’d be ‘all-in’, but MLB is not a perfect world. In fact, it’s an unfair world and the Pirates are on the receiving side of unfair. Given Quintana’s 2022 season, a left-handed needy, high market team will overpay, or more correctly pay over the Pirate willingness to pay, for the chance that Jose can repeat his 2022 performance. Nice idea but it’s dreaming.
 
From the Pirate standpoint Quintana checks a lot of boxes: 1) He’s a competent left-handed starting pitcher on a team that doesn’t have another, or one ‘on the way’ in the near term. 2) He’s relatively cheap, even for the Pirates. 3) He’s a veteran presence on the pitching staff. 4) He’s great in the clubhouse, and 5) He likes it in Pittsburgh, which shouldn’t be discounted. So, what to do? Sign him now would be the best solution but I suspect that’s not likely. Secondly, trade him for a ‘boat-load’ of prospects, which is highly unlikely, if not delusional. Last, but certainly depressingly least, trade him for what can be got!

1979andCounting

SSS of 4 games but Vogelbach is off to a decent start with Mets. .400/.571/.600

Looking forward to seeing Holderman added to roster next week.

piratemike

He’s going to be to Mets fan’s what Yoshi was to Pirates fan’s in ’21

SouthernBuc

I’ll be the contrarian. Quintana is a decent to good pitcher this year. He has proven (THiS YEAR) that he potentially has rebounded but he was not very good last year. This is not my watershed moment on the Pirates committing to win. I totally agree I would consider resigning him, at the right price however I think the odds of him repeating this years performance may not be that much different from him becoming last years Quintana.

But all of this should be an off-season decision, for right now he will bring something back to the organization. That ‘prospect’ return will just be another player who has some type of potential that may or may not pay off.

At some point there will be a list of free agent pitchers available for next year. Quintana may NOT be anybody’s first choice or may look like the gem. But there may also be a experienced pitcher available via trade (leveraging our prospect depth), that Pirates would be better off acquiring.

redwards60

Even if the Pirates did resign Quintana, they are NOT competing in 2023. Unless you believe Nutting is suddenly start spending real money on the roster. Beyond Hayes and Reynolds – who both have been disappointments this year – who is hitting, getting on base, and driving in runs 2023? Cruz? I hope so. Who else?

jon6er

More money and stay with a losing organization or potentially less money to go with a contender. This organization doesn’t seem to get too many things right even after getting some good prospects the last couple of years. Next thing you know they will be signing Shelton to an extension.

mikeschalke

The very thought of extending Shelton made me upchuck my breakfast!

redwards60

If the Pirates had an owner that valued winning as much as maximizing profits, the Pirates would make every attempt to resign a guy like Quintana. But, Nutting isn’t that kind of owner and he values maximizing profits over everything else – and he has publicly stated so. So, Quintana will likely be traded. Even if the Pirates wanted to resign him, he may not be interested….if given a choice of where to play, would you pick an organization like the Pirates if you are a competitor? I cannot imagine playing in Pittsburgh for t his organization is a very desirable option for players who have options. Quintana is a hot commodity right now…..

1979andCounting

Regardless of what happens with Quintana over the next few days, the Pirates should bring him back in 2023.

Rarely is there unanimous agreement on a Pirates FA signing, but this is as close as we’ll get. However, when Tyler Anderson got $8.5 mil from Dodgers, that puts Q back into perspective with our F.O. Not only is Q deserving of a $10 mil deal, but he would continue to be a great mentor to Roansy. Could Ben entice Q to a 2-year $16 mil deal? This will be of great interest as the winter sets in.

bucsws2014

I think the return could be significant if the team he’s traded to is getting a bit desperate and has a relatively flush system.

Which brings me to the Yankees. I plugged in a trade on the BTV.com evaluator and it took.

Yankees get Quintana and Underwood Jr.
Pirates get Miguel Andujar (I’d see him as 1b/OF), Brendan Beck (RHP), JP Sears (LHP), and Justin Lange (RHP).

redwards60

Instead of all those spare parts from the Yankees, I would rather have one real prospect – like Dominquez – for Quintana.

mikeschalke

Forget it, the Yanks would never entertain that proposal.

bucsws2014

My answer to that is Sears can go into the rotation as the new LH starter. Bucs desperately need pitching depth in the system. Beck and Lange are like getting two additional 2nd round picks in last year’s draft. Beck is very high floor even with the TJ, and Lange is high ceiling but a risk due to delivery (not unlike Stetson Allie). I think Andujar’s issue is lack of playing time at MLB level. Dude has proven himself once already in the Show, and has been tearing up AAA for the last 2-3 years, having nothing else to prove. Controllable for 3 years, could be 1b solution on next contending Bucs squad.

AdministrativeSky236

No shot we get dominguez for Q lol

b mcferren

trading for pebbles in return just for the sake of at least getting something before free agency is the #1 reason we have lost for 30+ years

it all comes from a (correct) decision in the 1991 offseason to keep Bonds, Bonilla and Drabeck and try to win in 1992

#ExtendCantina

robertkasperski

Depends upon what Quintana decides that he wants to do. If the player is intent on seeing what the market will bear, you trade him. See Gerrit Cole. He was not going to extend with anyone. Keeping guys and letting them walk in FA for nothing helped the Pirates how back in 1992 and beyond? Yes I got to see Sid Bream and his brace somehow beat a throw from Barry Bonds to beat the Pirates then……..nuthin…….

1979andCounting

Seeing what the market will bear is not the end of the road for the Pirates. It all comes down to the relationship Q has with the team, which by all indications are a very positive one. If he gives BC the last look, that’s really all we can hope for. Will Ben match? That’s the $64K question (or $10 mil question)…….and I have tremendous doubts he will.

robertkasperski

Did not say that it was the end of the road for the Pirates.All I was pointing out was that if a player decides that they want to test the market and are not interested in extending before being declared a free agent, why not trade him with the understanding that they are really interested in bringing him back and see if they can sign him then. In my mind, keeping him is not going to help him decide to sign with the Pirates if another team is willing to overpay and that entices the player to sign elsewhere.

postal911

I would agree that the return probably won’t be much, but you never know if you take some raw A ball player that could turn into something better. Tatis was once a piece of a package that brought back James Shields. Whitesox regret that move i bet. As for competing in 2023, i don’t see it. It will just be more of the same. More young guys moving up and probably struggling. Certainly not enough pitching to compete next year. You would need to add 2 solid starting pitchers and 3 reliable bullpen arms.

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