Latest Mock Draft from MLB Pipeline

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo have been doing mock drafts for MLB Pipeline over the last two months, releasing them every Thursday, taking turns making the picks. This week belongs to Callis, and he has the Pittsburgh Pirates taking Georgia high school second baseman Termarr Johnson with the fourth overall pick.

Johnson has been mentioned for the Pirates a few times over the last four months. He has a chance to be an elite batting average/OBP guy, with double-digit home run power. His bat is extremely advanced for a high school player.

Callis notes here that the Pirates might employ the same strategy as last year, going for a top talent at a slightly discounted price, leaving them room in their draft bonus pool to go after higher upside player with later picks. He also mentions two other players as possibilities here, with JUCO third baseman Cam Collier being a potential high upside/savings pick. He also mentions Brooks Lee, who has been the top name attached to the Pirates all season. The only reason Lee isn’t the pick for the Pirates in the mock draft is because Callis has him going third overall.

While he isn’t connected to the Pirates here, Callis has Elijah Green sliding to the fifth overall pick. In my opinion, he would be a hard player to pass over. He has more question marks than Johnson, but also higher upside.

2022 Draft
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AdministrativeSky236

I would be happy with johnson and the hs RHP from ohio as is shown here, ferris is still available by our second pick too which is fun

Danatural08

Kevin Parada

(pounding the table)

Colin

I’d be perfectly fine with Johnson. Would find it real hard to pass on Green if he were available though. Still think BC is gonna draft the college bat that gives the biggest discount. Just please draft the highest upside pick at 4 and let the rest of the chips fall where they may

hoffmark83

Just received Baseball America’s Draft preview issue. I know it’s available online but I’m old school and still like to read magazines and books.

agent00

how is it?

hoffmark83

Very good. Scouting reports on top 100 draft prospects

PirateRican21

The Jacob Berry interview over at MLB.con is legendary. He claims he’s the best switch hitter in the country, when asked about questions about his defense, basically claims he could play 3b and either OF corner good and will be better than good with time. Love the over confidence!

Colin

Wouldn’t be totally suprised if he’s our pick at 4. Definitely not who I’d want but wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the pick

roberto

Not arguing with the comments below, but Boras has reportedly sent Rocker’s medical information to teams. Not to commentators. No clue what the Mets were doing or Rocker’s health. I started to say ‘no discount,’ but realized that that might not be true.

hoptown

It’d be hard to pass on E Green and his enormous upside. But I think I would. I have this hunch Termarr is going to be a batting average machine. When you get compared to Wade Boggs…..

hoffmark83

I am all for drafting Johnson. I also wouldn’t mind drafting Collier for under slot and spending it in other rounds too but, at some point the Pirates need to draft for quality not quantity.

agent00

all aboard the termarr train!!

roibert.kasperski

Why do I suddenly hear Ozzy in my head??

roberto

Probably watching too much YouTube. New release just up.

roibert.kasperski

Nah! Just a flash back from college days Ozzy now stuck in my head…..
All aboard Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ay, ay, ay, ay, ay, ay, ay…………..

Cobra

I noticed Collier wasn’t lighting world on fire in Cape Cod this summer in limited action thus far, perhaps something Cherrington factors in – especially if Collier is a reach to begin with at 4th overall —based on stock Ben has put in CC in past

Last edited 1 month ago by Cobra
ArkyWags

I hope this happens. He’s the pick I want most of all.

johnalcorn

Agree, Termarr is my #1 . For me the hit tools for Green and Lee are too risky. If not Termarr, I could get on board with Collier and a big dollars for later. The top of this draft seems abnormally loaded with interesting bats to make up for little pitching,

jeffw3000

I like Jackson Holliday a lot, but my second pick might be Johnson. I have liked him all along, and the more I learn of him, the more I like him. I might like him even over Jones. If he is there and Holliday is not, I am hoping they will take Johnson.

Wilbur Miller

Can you trade a draft pick for extra waiver claims?

Asking for a friend.

hoffmark83

If they could, they would. I also think, if they could, they would trade this year’s 1st rounder for a 1st & 2nd rounder in 2027 because you know we are on a 5yr building plan.

Wilbur Miller

Then they could trade the 2027 picks for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounder in 2032!

Wilbur Miller

By 2100, they’ll have ALL the picks.

mpejkrm

Johnson > Green all the way. Dudes with Green’s profile end up as career minor leaguers much more often than stars. With a top 5 pick I’d rather take the dude with fewer hit tools questions (although tbf we said that about Gonzales too)

jaygray007

i’d be interested in seeing the data though. 18 yr olds who supposedly have advanced bat-to-ball skill probably bust all the time too.

mpejkrm

You may be right, I didn’t do any stats or anything just going off what I can think of empirically.

If we look at, say 2020, hit-over-power bats like Hassell, Veen, and Yorke have clearly surpassed power-first guys like Austin Hendrick.

roberto

If you look at the 2016 draft (which has some parallels to this one), you might get depressed, so don’t. The first real impact player has been Will Smith at 32.

SouthernBuc

Honestly, looking at any draft it is somewhat depressing how few players make more than even a minimal impact. I have started to remind myself the 1st round of baseball draft is so different than other drafts. Cole Tucker and Will Craig were first rounders, but if you look at the history of those draft spots, there are far more that never make it the majors or have cups of coffee compared to the few that have real impact. But these depressing comments do not prevent me from being excited about the draft!!

roberto

Good! Optimists are generally happier. Being right is seriously overrated.

jaygray007

i don’t mean this as any kind of criticism. It’s just something i’ve been thinking about during this mock draft season.

We all talk about upside and how some players have bigger and smaller upsides. But meanwhile, if we ran 100000 simulations of the universe, i wonder how many more of them end with Elijah as a stud than with Termarr as a stud.

Let’s even expand this. Who’s to say that Druw Jones is more likely to become the next (healthy version of) Byron Buxton than it is that Brooks lee becomes the next, idk, (good version of) Corey Seager.

Last edited 1 month ago by jaygray007
jsdspud

Your thinking is correct. A player like Green, power potential in CF comes along a lot less than Johnson. The issue is that Green has a less chance to reach his peak than Johnson does. The other side is that it is easier to find guys like Johnson latter in the draft, Brian Reynolds for example, than it is to find a player like Green. This is why BC and Joe Dellacari (spelling?) get paid big money to make these decision.

roberto

Especially if you know you may be wrong.

jaygray007

i’m sure the answer is just that a Green just probably appears to be a more complete and impressive athlete at the moment.

But also… maybe a Johnson gets absolutely yoked with some professional guidance and becomes even better.

NMR

That’s really it.

The entire concept of athleticism translating to upside bakes in an enormous assumption, that anyone can be taught to hit. This is an area where you’re already seeing the league revert to conventional wisdom, that you can’t really teach the hit tool. Hand eye coordination means for more to a baseball player than your vertical jump and how many times you can rep two plates.

Too many Jo Adell’s and Austin Beck’s and Lew Brinson’s and Anthony Alford’s have busted for this type of prospect to be trusted.

The flipside, of course, is that the hit tool is by far hardest of all to project. Baseball is really hard!

roberto

But won’t he still be a small second baseman?

NMR

Lots of biomechanical reasons to believe “small” may actually have advantages.

They don’t give you extra runs for hitting it further over the fence, right? So as long as you have the rotational ability and wrist strength to generate bat speed and power like Johnson does, shorter levers actually make the game that much easier.

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