Pirates Discussion: Travel Day Back to Pittsburgh

With Tuesday’s loss to the Chicago Cubs, the Pittsburgh Pirates fall to 4th place in the NL Central.

The game looked like it was going to get out of hand quickly in the bottom of the first when the Cubs used four consecutive hits to push across three runs with only one out. Bryse Wilson was able to then tighten it up and only allow two more hits and a walk the rest of the way. Wilson completed six innings while only giving up the three earned runs.

Wilson has actually been able to complete six or more innings in three of his last four starts while allowing eleven runs, only eight of which have been earned. The recurring theme as of late — No, not the “Pirates offense wastes another strong starting pitching effort” theme — he seems to be seeing far better results from an uptick in a sinker-slider combination, complimented with a significant drop in four-seam fastballs.

Bryse Wilson’s sinker usage didn’t really have any trends earlier in the season. It was anywhere from as low as 12.5% and as high as 37.3%. In his last four starts it hasn’t dropped below 40.4%. Likewise, his slider usage was all over with as low as 1.7% and up to 29.1%, but in his last three starts it hasn’t dropped below 28%.

Four-Seam fastball? Three. He threw three total in this last start against the Cubs.

Over the last month — not including yesterday since Fangraphs isn’t updated as I write this — the Pirates are tied for 9th with the Cleveland Guardians in starter fWAR (2.1) and ranked 15th in Starter ERA (4.02).

The elephant in the room is that Jose Quintana is the probable starter for Friday’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies. Key word is “probable” with the looming deadline only a week away.

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bucsws2014

In an MLB.com article titled “7 Trades Contenders Need to Make” was this nugget:

Proposed deal: Acquire OF Bryan Reynolds and RHP David Bednar from Pirates for RHP Daniel Espino (Guardians’ No. 1 prospect), INF Tyler Freeman (No. 6), RHP Xzavion Curry (No. 20), OF Will Brennan (No. 28and OF Oscar Gonzalez

Which may sound like something of interest, until you go to the Trade Simulator and notice it’s just a wee bit tilted toward Cleveland… 80.4 value to Pirates, 105.8 value to Guardians. I don’t think I’d consider that to be “blown away”.

Wilbur Miller

I wouldn’t trade Reynolds alone for that. Not even close. Espino’s missed most of the year with a knee injury and Freeman just duplicates about four guys we already have in the upper minors. Bae is better.

ArkyWags

At least Espino’s injury wasn’t arm related. I’d want two big prospects for Reynolds: Espino and Valera, something like that…maybe a sweetener too. Cleveland would never go for it; but that’s the kinda deal I’d want.

ArkyWags

By trade simulator you mean baseball trade values the sight? It’s a fun site but I’m highly skeptical of their model. They really thought Adam Frazier had a ton of trade value because he was a legit .300 hitter. And he wasn’t even close. So yeah…healthy amount of salt with them.

AdministrativeSky236

I was thinking the same thing, thats more of a reynolds only offer not both him and bednar. Funny because the guardians reddit was saying what an overpay it was and that reynolds isnt even that much of an upgrade for them

roibert.kasperski

What happened to Bae? Did Van Meter stop in Toledo on the way back to the Burgh and whack him?

ricramer

Cruz two games away from leaving the prospect list.

b mcferren

Pity the fool

“If I ever find myself behind in the count, I know they’re just going to throw me a lot of fool pitches,” he said, “just try to fool me, try to get me to chase.

https://triblive.com/sports/on-the-job-training-helps-pirates-oneil-cruz-learn-what-it-takes-to-play-in-the-majors/

Last edited 1 month ago by b mcferren
RAS TN

So for me, it’s 70-30 Pirates signing their #1 pick…Tik Toc…

skliesen

Only way Johnson isn’t signed is if he develops a Rocker type injury between now and Monday.

Speaking of that, feel bad for Druw Jones. The latest in a long line of Dbacks high picks to get injured. Specifically shoulder injuries. If I was the Dbacks GM, I’d probably higher a Catholic Priest to poor some holy water over next year’s pick.

roibert.kasperski

I saw that too. If I am the #1 pick for the Dbacks in 2023, I would be sweating bullets just waiting to get hurt.

If am available for the 2023 draft and one of my shoulders starts to ache for no reason, I would know that the Dbacks are gonna take me with their 1st round pick 🙂

Last edited 1 month ago by roibert.kasperski
ArkyWags

Someone doesn’t pay attention to draft signings for MLB.

RAS TN

Has the official signing been announced…No I don’t think so and until it’s done it ain’t done…

Please keep your snark to yourself…

docdon385

I’d bet, and assuming you’re giving those odds I’ll take all of it, that there’s already a deal in place and they’re just waiting to finalize the numbers. It’ll happen.

TNBucs

99-1 for me, with the 1 being that the physical showed something completely unexpected. It’s probably be even less than 1, something comparable to the Pirates’ playoff chances. In fact, I expect it to happen today–what better way to come off of a disappointing series in Chicago to build some excitement about the big weekend series?

I just hope they don’t let old man Roethlisberger and his “(For current players) Now, it’s about me and this, that and the other” lead the welcome party on yinzer night Friday. With Ben gone, I’m more interested and excited about the Steelers than I’ve been in years (I’m sure that’s not a popular sentiment, and sorry for going off the rails here).

Timbertopper

You’re not alone, brother. It was (past) time. (Hopping back on the rails)

b mcferren

I hope the Steelers give Bubba Chandler a tryout in a few years

b mcferren

that would motivate me to watch football again after a 15 year hiatus

Last edited 1 month ago by b mcferren
mehutch

Sorry, I think worrying about Big Ben speaking at the yinzer event is at the bottom of the list.

roibert.kasperski

The deal might just be TJ gets whatever overslot money is left so he is good with waiting until next Monday and get what is there. Won’t hurt him if he waits a few more days to sign.

PirateRican21

When is that yinzerpalooza event I’ve seen advertised?

ArkyWags

I think it’s Friday or Saturday.

roibert.kasperski

It is Friday. I just love this intersweb thingy 🙂

PirateRican21

His signing will be announced that day.

roibert.kasperski

comment image&ct=g

TNBucs

MLBTR says the White Sox and Yankees have interest in Quintana. We seem to know the Yankees system well (hey–tie-in with the Escotto article)–do we go back to the well again?

ArkyWags

Yankees always have a slew of arms. Maybe a couple of 40’s?

AdministrativeSky236

Add in dominguez or no deal! I would actually really love to find a way to pry waldichuk from them but i doubt that will happen short of reynolds or bednar going their way

SouthernBuc

Only complication is Duvall was platooning with Rosario (lefty), so I would think the Braves would be more likely to want a right handed hitter to fill the Duvall role. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t potentially want Gamel to replace Rosario who has struggled but I would doubt that. I do hope he lands on a team with a real chance to advance deep.

TNBucs

Good point. I guess the hope would be that since Gamel hasn’t shown much of a split over his career, that he’d replace both (Gamel does have a pretty pronounced split this year, though–hitting RHP slightly better than for his career but doing much worse against LHP).

b mcferren

Like Kyle Muller

TNBucs

I hope they find a good landing place for Gamel (I don’t like the Braves but it would be exciting for Gamel, I’m sure). Being a Duvall replacement makes a lot of sense. If the Pirates want to re-sign him as a 4th OF in the offseason, fine. But we shouldn’t pass the chance to get a prospect and, more importantly, free up OF space for the rest of the season by holding on to him.

john_fluharty

What are his options like?

TNBucs

Yes, if Allen shows he belongs he’s a much better choice than Gamel. Or our 4th OF comes from Swaggerty, CSN, Mitchell, Fraizer, …

Wilbur Miller

The city of Pittsburgh should refuse entry to any FO personnel or coaching staff who can’t prove that they’ve been vaccinated against the stoopid.

AdministrativeSky236

Speaking of vaccinations, do we have a series in toronto?

AdministrativeSky236

This would be fantastic, even a few playoff series could make a significant impact. Imagine blue jays vs cards and the cards are down both arenado and goldschmidt for half the series

roibert.kasperski

Of course you made me look… The Jays migrate south to Pittsburgh Sept 2-4

AdministrativeSky236

I am split on this, as a fan I kind of want to know who I should lose some respect for on the team, but also the whole ignorance is bliss thing is kinda nice too

TNBucs

I’m on the ignorance is bliss side–I was relieved when I saw that we host Toronto 🙂

roibert.kasperski

Ditto on the Ignorance is bliss side 🙂

ArkyWags

Lose for Crews Watch (hat tip to the author here):

Stumbling out of the All Star break losing four of five has not only dumped Pittsburgh into fourth in the Central, but also moved them closer to the bottom five in MLB. In fact, Wednesday wins by Detroit over San Diego and Kansas City over LAA would leave the Pirates tied with Detroit ahead of only Cincinnati, Oakland, and Washington. A Cincinnati win over Miami would leave the Bucs only 1.5 up on the Reds.

Cobra

Pirates currently have 6th worst team in MLB = 7.5% chance of 1st overall pick next year.
Our odds would close to double if we were the 4th worst team = 13.25%

source: https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

ArkyWags

When do they do the lottery? After the WS?

roibert.kasperski

I bet the kid has no ragrets!

ArkyWags

Not even a letter!

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