The first ever MLB Draft Lottery takes place tonight at 8:30 PM on MLB Network.
The first six spots in the 2023 draft will be decided by the lottery tonight, with the Pirates one of 18 teams in the mix. Ethan Hullihen recently posted a draft primer that explains the Pirates’ odds for each pick.
The Pirates finished with the third worst record in baseball in 2022. In normal years, that would give them the third overall pick in the amateur draft for the 2023 season.
The new draft lottery system gives the Pirates a chance to move up to the first or second pick. They could pick anywhere from first to ninth overall, so there are more bad than good options in their position. The Pirates have a 16.5% chance of landing the first overall pick.
The Washington Nationals had the worst record, so there’s no upside in the lottery for them. They either get the pick they would have gotten without the system, or they drop in the draft. They also have a 16.5% chance of the top pick — as do the Oakland A’s, who finished second between the Pirates and Nationals.
On the flip side, the Milwaukee Brewers have the 18th overall pick, last among the lottery teams. There is zero downside for them. They can’t do any worse than where they would have been, but they have a chance to pick in spots 1-6, or move up if any other low odds teams gets a pick.
We will update this when the Pirates’ pick is announced.
UPDATE: The Pirates received the first pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.
Here are the full results, with their lottery odds placement going into the process. Copied from MLB.com
1. Pirates (T-1)
2. Nationals (T-1)
3. Tigers (6)
4. Rangers (7)
5. Twins (13)
6. A’s (T-1)
7. Reds (4)
8. Royals (5)
9. Rockies (8)
10. Marlins (9)
11. Angels (10)
12. D-backs (11)
13. Cubs (12)
14. Red Sox (14)
15. White Sox (15)
16. Giants (16)
17. Orioles (17)
18. Brewers (18)
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball.
When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.
Since it’ll be hopping here:
This is a very rough estimate of where the Pirates will be picking and their pool for 2023:
So the Bugs pick first but that does not mean they will take the highest rated player. They may try to sign the pick for less than slot so that they can sign other high ceiling prospects. It will be fun to see what they do.
Destiny!
Thanks, but no thanks.
Yeah your right.
Wow didn’t realize his kid was that old.
Hey we’re finally #1
Will the Pirates have the Top bonus pool for IFAs next January?
I forget how that works but I think they will not.
Thanks!
Bob is back in WV wringing his hands and gnashing his teeth…….thinking he’s got to sell some newspapers to raise money for #1 pick (again). The Ski slopes paid for Davis and Nick. Was overheard mumbling…. “Wth is this, I didn’t get in this business to pay draft bonuses.”
Dollander, the next Verlander!!
Actually, he gets de grom comps, I’ve said this over and over , Aces win world series.
we definitely tanked on purpose this year
is this not proof that the lottery does not deter from tanking
and we didn´t call up any rookies until July
is that not proof that the deter service time tampering does not work
work stoppage last year was very meaningless, no?
There’s a difference between tanking and just not caring.
When running a bottom-feeding payroll is the real goal, no.
Castillo, Park and Contreras opened the season with them. Suwinski and Marcano came up in April, Castro and Mitchell in May.
No
Not if you worked in a spring training facility.
Hey I all called it on the primer thread, 1-1. I guess I should play the real lottery.
Let the wringing of hands and the gnashing of teeth begin! Who will it be?. Who will it be???.
to all the people who complained about VanMeter this season:
you can VanSuckIt
Oh yes. Losing is so much fun and the Pirates are so good at it.
Why?
#1 pick in the draft is not possible without players like VanMeter, Miguel Del Pozo, Marvell Wynne, Paul Wagner, Jimmy Anderson and Charlie Morten
I’d much prefer the last pick in the draft.
Hey, Jimmy Anderson was better than Bullington and JVB combined. I’d take a Jimmy, Josh Fogg, Kip Wells, and Zach Duke any day.
Ground chuck was a good pitcher for the Pirates!
7.57 era in 2010
big reason we acquired Garret Cole
It to9k him a while to get going, but when he was healthy, he was good.
it takes almost all pitchers four or five years to figure it out
that is precisely why we are doomed under the current arbitration system and service time rules
The political economy of Baseball is a dumpster fire.
It is a beautiful thing when we Pirates fan gets to celebrate something…anything!
Everything is trending upward!
I’m happy the Pirates won this foolish lottery, but I still don’t like it. The A’s, Reds and Royals, all small markets that had bad seasons, dropped to positions where they might not get a ‘prime’ choice that they otherwise would have had option to take. Then there’s the more important larger draft budget that is a huge advantage, which they also won’t get. It’s unfair. I’d rather win fairly, but of course, some of the ‘prime’ draftees might be Scott Boras clients and drop to them, and they’d have the great pleasure of developing a future Yankee, Dodger … you know the teams.
I always like John’s draft prospects coverage, but I think I like it best when we have the first pick since I don’t need to worry whether a player will drop to us.
I’d rather talk about a smaller group of players as well. 2021 was fun and I liked how they handled the entire draft because of the first pick
Well John, you will need to work for it this year…Have to go big and scout all our options for the competitive balance pick and 2nd thru 5th rounders…😎😉
The real win here is the bonus pool. In 2021, they essentially turned that into Solometo, White and Chandler. White’s been hurt but could still come through. And pitching prospects . . . we all know all the memes. But Solometo is a legit SP prospect and Chandler, if you’ve watched him, has a huge ceiling. At this point in time, it’s a plus-plus outcome.
Of course, the money could all go on somebody like Dylan Crews. Which is fine. The option is there.
I think White is a year away from being basically a write off. The worst thing a two sport guy can do is miss time as he desperately needs reps.
But even with that likely outcome, they’ve got two promising pitching prospects and Hank.
They say he’s healthy now, fwiw.
For reference, this is a rough estimate I have right now:
We just have to hope that at least two of those five become good major leaguers.
Just like the 2022 draft, the top 5 are good picks.
Dare I dream that the Pirate will win a WS?
I’d be happy with our first NL Central title it 30 years. I’m a skeptical Pirate fan. I will believe it when I see it.
Dreams do come true, don’t let them tell you different
My dreams will come true when these wave of prospects lead us to at least an NL Central title. Until then…..they’re just dreams.
I’d love to go to the park this time around and experience it instead of watching it on TV.
Yep. I have been disappointed too many times to get excited.
Pirates immediately begin looking for the next Daniel Moskos
How about the next Kris Benson.
A better comp would be Bryan Bullington. Moskos was the fourth pick in the draft.
His son, Daniel Bullington? Or maybe Bryan Moskos.
I’d be crying “Danger Will Robinson” if we took ANY players with those last names.
Watch it! Anything negative Loehrs22 will downvote you. I think he is secretly Ben’s administrative ass-istant!
Tough guy. Are you still living in your moms basement not able to pay for your subscription
He’s probably older than your mom.
Wow! You finally replied. Now let’s have a convo. Why are you on this crusade to downvote me all of the time? Did I kick your dog or something? Seriously. At least have the decency to tell me why you downvote me. If you don’t agree with my opinion, tell me.
You dared to call numerous fouls on him during your referee career! You know he still holds a grudge 🤣🤣
I thought for sure they were going to end up picking 9th. I can’t believe that they won the lottery.
You weren’t alone. Now we just have to ‘buc’ the 30-40% failure rate of overall #1 picks for the last 30 years. My Philly buddy moans about Moniak, so I moan about Bullington, lol.
Nice interview there by Ben.
You guys, I mean Yinz are hysterical
Dylan Crews is ours!!!
Yes. Speed, power, average. Our next great RFer
So who do we like at #1 ? Crews? Dollander? Someone else?
I’d rather see us take Max Clark
You take a bat in the top 5, bat’s are the scarce resource and pitching gets hurt ,just ask Detroit.
dollander would be pretty pretty cool
Brock Wilken so we can trade Hayes in 2025
He’s probably not an IF’er in pro ball
DH?
We aren’t trading a 5 WAR player fresh off a WORLD SERIES TITLE! 😎
Better find a swing coach real quick!
Just watch. He’s going to make you, Lee Foo, and all the other haters eat your words.
He’s had 3 seasons to get some lift in his swing. I’m not holding my breathe on him at this point. 90 wRC+ bat looks bad from your highest paid player.
Yes, their 3 win player is their biggest problem. On a 100 loss club.
Nobody but you made the biggest problem claim, Argy. He’s just a really shitty “highest paid player” for a team to have as a face.
I like Crews, but it is a long road before the pick. Lots can happen – just ask Kumar Rocker.
It’s a shame that MLB cut down on the ads.
WTH now I love the Draft Lottery!
Don’t forget that they also limited the amount of consecutive times teams can pick high in the draft as part of the lottery, so there is possibly more to hate next year
So next year they can’t pick in the top six, correct? Best they can pick is 7th?
We’re #1
huzzah!! how exciting
lottery still sucks tho
We can do away with the lottery for future years now that we won the first pick in this one.
Could our representative look any less enthused??
They realized they have to explain to Bob that the bonus pool isn’t money they give you.
Well the BAM money is and that will cover there the bonus pool and the international money an put a big dent the free agents this year.
Unfortunately, that’s a gain/loss from investment and would be removed from any normal operating budget.
I wish MLB would explain that bonus pool better to fans. Every time there was a trade of international bonus pool space, so many people thought the Pirates were getting cash and criticizing them for being cheap. Some major news sources were getting it wrong too. Like you really think they print special money that can only be spent on international players, but if they don’t, they get to exchange it for US dollars?
I love this draft lottery system
Yes!!!!
A’s guy no longer smiling.
Gotta drag it out for commercial time!
They didn’t drag it out nearly as much as the NBA drags out its draft lottery.
Gotta good feeling
And you told us this for what reason?
The suspense is killing me.
Top 6 picks now
As 6
Twins 5
We win no matter what.
Rangers 4
Tigers 3!
Holy crap! Are we allowed to win things?!
hahaha
WOAH we got it!
And a serious bonus pool with it.
I was all set to say F… Rob Manfred and now I can’t.
It’s always correct to say F Rob Manfred.
Might we even see Wilbur crack a smile?
No
In due time 😁 You and the rest of us can all shout that in unison when this pick along Johnson and the 2021 guys all are hoisting that hunk of metal after ripping it out Manfred’s cold hands 😁
You definitely can, don’t forget the rule that limits the amount of times you’re eligible for the lottery
Ace the draft now, start winning games, and we won’t care about the lottery. As long as we’re stuck with this stupid idea, this was the one to win.
So, it is 8:44 pm EST when does the 8:30 pm EST Draft Lottery Start?
It was over before 8:46 because that’s when I tweeted out the updates
Can Sidney Crosby play baseball?
Loved introducing all the Scouting Directors like they were top prospects lol so lame
what the hell is this?
where are the bingo balls?
Do you know how long that would take with the odds? There were teams with 0.2 chance and 0.5, which means 1,000 minimum. Imagine they picked the Pirates first, then had to find the other 164 Pirates bingo balls before the next pick
They picked them off stage.
Haha, Reds.
I laughed at the Reds’ pick.
Brewers with 18/Orioles 17th
Giants 16
White Sox 15
Red Sox 14
Cubs 13
Dbacks 12
Angels 11
Marlins 10
Rockies 9
Royals 8
Reds 7
Goodness, the comments here already.
The draft should be totally disbanded, but this is at least a little better.
Encourage not being bad. Encourage trying.
Quite simple
In a world where every player is a free agent only the richest team sign good players
Completely disagree about the lottery and disbanding the draft. Without the draft, the rich get richer. The draft can’t rebuild a team, so tanking for picks guarantees nothing, and has no immediate impact on teams due to the minors. The whole point of the draft is reward the worst teams to create balance. This isn’t basketball where one player can turn a franchise around and tanking makes more sense. Angels have two of the best players in all of baseball and can’t win. The worst teams shouldn’t have to fight to be able to spend money in the draft.
Or maybe the worse are forced to be better.
Not to mention giving employees the right to choose where they want to work, the same as everyone else.
That would only work in a 100% revenue sharing league, which would need to include the “non-baseball revenue” loophole.
You could definitely get rid of the draft, but still had spending limits for teams and where they finished. Teams with bad records are allowed more to spend.
So the Bucs, with 15 million, could spend it however they wished. They could give five million to three amateurs if they wanted. Or give $500k to 30 players.
The whole thing could be like college football signing day. An event. Players get to choose where they want to go and teams get to choose how they spend on players.
This would be a little better, but it’s still capping signing bonuses, which isn’t cool
Right. I’m not sure what the solution is. Getting rid of the draft kind of makes it look like the bonus baby days of 70 years ago.
Richer teams have gotten a lot smarter about the draft and amateurs as a whole. So if it was just wide open on signing day with no restrictions, it would be even worse.
nah
Salary cap and floor and you’re on.
#9 pick, come on down!
Just think what the Pirates would do if they could trade players under contract for future draft choices?
Teams can trade the competitive balance picks
I forgot that and I think the Pirates have been involved in competitive balance pick trades. Is that right?
Yes they have. The Gaby Sanchez deal saw them trade one and the Bryan Morris deal saw them acquire one
Manfred takes every chance he gets to kick the small market fan.
this sucks
I disagree. I think that this will help reduce multiple year tank jobs when combined with the new rule to limit how many consecutive years a team can pick in the top 3.
Why tank to lose 100 games when you could potentially pick 9th?
The best way to reduce tanking though is to eliminate the draft bonus pools. Let teams spend what they want in the draft and there won’t be a need to tank.
Agent out here securing the number one pick ahead of time.
reverse jinx works every time
I think it sucks too, just feels like piling on the underprivileged. But we also kinda deserve it too, well Nutting does, not the fans. This is just an opportunity for Nutting to not have to spend as much money with a smaller draft pool.
Yes, whether it’s the Pirates or some other small market team, somebody, or more than one somebody, will get screwed, and at least one large market team will get a ‘big boost,’ as if they need more advantage. Whoever dreamed-up this ridiculous ‘made for TV’ debacle is an imbecile.
I agree. The MLB draft isn’t the same as other sports. No team can tank for a player and then turn things around the next year because of that player. Baseball can’t be won by one player. This is a money grab for them. Fans of 18 teams have interest. They put it on TV, stream it online. It’s not going to stop tanking because it’s not easy to build through the draft. The failure rate is extremely high. A large majority of draft picks don’t make the majors, and a large majority of the ones who do, add almost no real value. This process defeats the whole purpose of the draft.
That’s a good point. Don’t think anyone ever said “tank for Bryan Bullington”
correct. just another mechanism to punish small market teams
I actually told Tim right after this posted that I wouldn’t mind the teams staying in the same exact order. I’d rather Pirates pick 1-2 obviously, but it would really stick it to Manfred if absolutely nothing changed
Stick it to Manfred?
You realize the players wanted this, right?
The players wanted a tv show about the draft lottery? Seems highly unlikely
Come on, they wanted to lottery. That’s obviously what you were talking about and what I meant.