The 2023 MLB season us upon us. The Pittsburgh Pirates have set their rosters. They take on the Cincinnati Reds today, with Mitch Keller on the mound.
This week’s Roundtable gives our individual outlooks for the season, and our win projections.
JOHN DREKER: 75
I’ve been around 75-76 wins this off-season, because I think this team will be improved enough during the second half of 2023 that they will play .500 ball over the final 70 games or so after the All-Star game.
As they signed some players this off-season, my guess was slowly increasing, but now with JT Brubaker out to start the year, along with Jarlin Garcia being a key bullpen arm out, I’m back down to the 75 win range. Except for Bryan Reynolds, I don’t think there are any positive outcomes on offense you can guarantee from this team, and even Reynolds has his streaky bad moments.
There are too many question marks to predict anything higher than 75 wins. They need a lot to go right to exceed expectations, but I do believe that the second half will give people hope for the future, as more top prospects arrive.
WILBUR MILLER: 72
For all the talk of this year being different, it really isn’t. The Pirates just opted for third tier veterans instead of Triple-A players with no business in the majors.
The rotation looked like it could be a big area of improvement, but JT Brubaker’s injury may mute the potential gains there a bit. The bullpen once again will be loaded with mediocre middle relievers. Ben Cherington achieved the seemingly impossible feat of downgrading the offense behind the plate, and the offense overall still figures to be one of baseball’s worst. The defense also won’t be improved.
The focus of the season, once again, will be on waiting for prospects to arrive, which probably won’t happen until mid-season, if then. Once Endy Rodriguez is safely past Super Two status and the Pirates start to shed veterans to clear a path for other rookies, then we’ll start to see what a potential winning team in Pittsburgh might look like.
ANTHONY MURPHY: 75
I’m not saying that I am predicting 70-75 wins this season, as even now with the season here I’m not sure how I feel about this team. I do feel that this team, at this point in the build, and with what they looked to accomplish in the offseason, should be in a position to make a noticeable increase and finish in that range.
This team absolutely needs to take that next step in being a lot more competitive. A winning season or playoff berth would be a bit much at this point, and still not really necessary, but a noticeable step forward is critical.
To do that, it will have to be the rotation leading the way, as it seems to have the best blend of talent in the majors, with legitimate depth waiting in the minors. It took quite the hit with Brubaker being out, but a blend of Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, and Luis Ortiz will all hopefully provide depth to supplement the rotation.
Overall, expectations wise, it just comes down to competitiveness and growth. The Pirates will have a lot of players looking to take the next step, and while they brought quite a few veterans in, it will be the youth that will be relied on for success.
JEFF REED: 70
70 wins. That would be an eight-win increase over the 2022 season. Nothing to get too excited about, but still a step in the right direction.
The Pirates front office appears to be stepping out from the rebuilding process, but still remaining quite conservative. Given the circumstances, there isn’t much more they can do this early in the season than replace JT Brubaker with Johan Oviedo. Hopefully his final Spring Training start was a sign of things moving in the right direction, but I’m not very confident in Oviedo giving the Pirates the same quality of innings Brubaker would have.
A line I often repeat is that bullpens are fungible. So, in my mind, the bullpen could really go a myriad of ways. My initial reaction is that it may be underwhelming to begin. Jarlin Garcia going down didn’t help, but I’m intrigued by Dauri Moreta. Jose Hernandez is a flip of the coin, and I think Chase De Jong’s luck is going to run out. I’m also on the short list of people not really impressed with Colin Holderman, as he’s another on the list of what’s seeming to be a trend of fastball/slider pitchers whose fastball sees way more contact than you’d hope. That said, I think the bullpens success will be contingent more on relievers in the minors ascending to the majors such as Colin Selby, Yerry De Los Santos, and Carmen Mlodzinski.
Defensively, I’m very underwhelmed. I won’t go on a long tangent, as I think it’s improved, but not to the degree it could be. We’re going to see some great plays, and we’re going to see some head shaking ones.
To leave on a high note, I think this is going to be a much more fun team offensively. A full season of Oneil Cruz on it’s own is going to be special. I think Ke’Bryan Hayes himself is geared up for a very special season. Where at season’s end we’re going to be saying, “We still have this guy another seven years for only $50M?”. Look for Bryan Reynolds to have a strong season back in a more comfortable and less demanding defensive position.
From there is as good as anyone’s guess. Will Andrew McCutchen see a boost from a hometown return? Will some players break out of their platoon molds or show growth? I do think the Pirates look to have a much better reserve of depth than they’ve had in recent years. We’ll have to wait and see the role and impact they’ll serve this season, along with waiting for the prospects on what should be a loaded Indianapolis roster to be “ready”.
TIM WILLIAMS: 79
I’m really interested to see how Derek Shelton handles this season. I honestly haven’t cared about the previous three years in Pittsburgh, because the Pirates haven’t cared to add to the team. To me, Shelton has been playing a game of chess without a knight, rook, and a bishop as his queen — and he’s been expected to play a game of strategy by the same rules as teams with a full board.
The Pirates may not have a full board now, but it’s as close to being complete as Shelton has ever had to work with. If they can’t show advancements at this point with guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Mitch Keller, then I’d question whether the Pirates have a good system in place. We have still yet to see a top prospect step up and live up to the potential in Pittsburgh that makes him a top prospect. I’m very optimistic that this is changing.
What I like about this year is the fact that the Pirates have stabilized their roster with key veterans. They added Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi to the infield group, Andrew McCutchen to the outfield group, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez to the rotation, and Austin Hedges behind the plate. All of these guys can play, with the potential to stabilize a lot of weak areas from one of the worst teams in the majors in 2022.
The thing I especially like is the leadership aspect. The Pirates will be graduating a lot of prospects to the majors this year. They will be starting with a few young players on the roster at second base and in the outfield. These veterans can all provide leadership by giving those young players access to older players who know the secrets to remaining in the majors for a long time.
The best part is that the Pirates have a lot of depth from the minor league system. The easiest place to see that is in the outfield. Canaan Smith-Njigba and Jack Suwinski will both vie for playing time in Pittsburgh, with Travis Swaggerty, Cal Mitchell, and Matt Gorski in the upper levels of the minors. What can Andrew McCutchen do to help one or more of those guys reach their upsides?
What can Hill and Velasquez do for the younger members of the rotation? What can Hedges do for the rotation, for that matter? What will Endy Rodriguez learn from Hedges when he eventually arrives? How much will the presence of Santana and Choi at first base provide a calming factor for Rodolfo Castro and Ji-Hwan Bae next door at second base? How can the Pirates maximize the veteran production with the DH?
I think the Pirates are to the point where they’re starting to play chess at the Major League level. I’m interested to see how Shelton manages the team with as close to a full board as we’ve ever seen him work with. I’m optimistic that the current approach will lead to much better results from the younger players than we’ve seen in the past. I think this team surprises, and for my prediction, I’m going with the 50th percentile of 79 wins from my pre-season analysis. Part of me feels that this will be way too optimistic in hindsight. Part of me wants to go bold and predict a winning record, because I think we’ll see a Pirates team with more positive energy and momentum than they’ve had in years. I’ll stay “safe” at 79.
