Despite hitting 19-home runs last year, Jack Suwinski posted a below league average wRC+ in 2022. A lot of that was due to a 30% strikeout rate, as he finished in the 6th percentile in the category, as well as the 15th percentile when it comes to whiff rate.
Suwinski is currently in the 96th percentile when it comes to chase rate this season, which is an elite number. On the flip side, his whiff rate is still among the league’s worst — in the 13th percentile.
So he isn’t chasing pitches out of the zone, but is still missing at pitches he shouldn’t be missing.
He really struggled in spring, leading to the debate as to whether or not he should automatically retain his roster spot. The way Ben Cherington spoke during Spring Training, it actually seemed like it was never in doubt, and Suwinski made the opening day roster.
It was really more of the same for Suwinski, he’s still striking out a lot, but when he does make contact, he tears the cover off the ball.
This season he’s posting some of the best batted ball metrics in the game, despite carrying a whiff and strikeout rate in the 13th percentile.
Suwinski is second on the Pirates with four homers. He hit back-to-back homers to lead off the game on Tuesday, giving him home runs in three straight at-bats.
THREE STRAIGHT AT BATS WITH A HOME RUN 🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/9I9iBkLgwY
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) April 19, 2023
What makes his power the most impressive is that he did it with the eighth most at-bats among Pirates position players.
The lessened at-bats highlights exactly what is working for Suwinski, they are picking the spots better to play him the lineup. He’s had four at-bats against lefties, his ultimate weak spot last year, and they’ve even been selective against some of the righties he’s faced as well.
In this case, they’ve let him completely run loose in one of the most notorious hitter’s ball parks in the league.
For Suwinski, being able to leverage what is working for him, into situations that favors him is perfectly displaying ‘less is more’.
PROSPECT NOTES
— Matt Gorski hit his second home run of the season, a grand slam, on Tuesday but the most important number on the day for him was zero. As in he didn’t strikeout at all, which has been a huge problem for him this season.
— It didn’t take long for the Greensboro to get to displaying the power playing at home for the first time, in a game that was finally streamed on MiLB TV, as they launched four home runs on the night.
Mike Jarvis, Jase Bowen, Maikol Escotto, and Will Matthiessen all went deep in Greensboro’s loss.
— The top of the Bradenton order is really cruising right now. Tuesday night Jesus Castillo and Enmanuel Terrero combined to go 5-for-9 with four runs, two RBI and a walk – all without striking out. Terrero picked up his second triple of the season as well.
Check out the rest of the action in the nightly Prospect Watch.
Prospect Watch: Pirates Get Some Welcome Pitching Performances
Daily Video Rundown
It hasn’t been the best of starts for Cal Mitchell, but you can see him starting to string some hits together.
Cal Mitchell givin' us a three-run lead in the third. 💪 pic.twitter.com/pD5VwW4Iy3
— Indianapolis Indians (@indyindians) April 19, 2023
Here’s a look at that Gorski grand slam, his second home run of the season.
Bases loaded for Matt Gorski of the @AltoonaCurve … bases unloaded by the No. 17 #Pirates prospect.
Tune into the FREE Game of the Day: https://t.co/aKtGFgX9NB pic.twitter.com/NnZdPI0lTc
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 18, 2023
Another player who got off to a slow start, but looks like he might be slowly heating up, Henry Davis drives in a run on this single here.
It's a line drive in the books and an RBI-single for @henrydavis32 to give us a 2-0 lead! 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/EiVUv4eGOh
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) April 18, 2023
PIRATES PROSPECTS DAILY
By Tim Williams
I’ve been making some slight adjustments behind the scenes this week to the content schedules. The Prospect Watch will now post at the end of the night, similar to the Pirates game recap. The daily discussion will get a new format tomorrow, incorporating MLB and minor league discussion into one article.
If you scroll down on the main page of the site, you’ll see a section for our player features. These are the site’s reporting, live views, video scouting reports, and weekly top performers. Each week, we will have five player stories, plus the top performers article every Monday.
Check out the latest player feature, a scouting breakdown by Anthony Murphy on the new pitch that has helped to unlock Johan Oviedo’s arsenal. Oviedo takes the mound against the Rockies this afternoon at 3:10 PM EST.
I’ll have my first column in a week after the game.
Pirates Recap: Velasquez and Suwinski Lead the Latest Victory
Prospect Watch: Pirates Get Some Welcome Pitching Performances
**John Dreker with some news on the international front: Pirates Add Two Pitchers to Their International Signing Class
SONG OF THE DAY
There’s a 50% chance that my column tomorrow is titled “Time to Pretend”.
Anthony began writing over 10 years ago, starting a personal blog to cover the 2011 MLB draft, where the Pirates selected first overall. After bouncing around many websites covering hockey, he refocused his attention to baseball, his first love when it comes to sports. He eventually found himself here at Pirates Prospects in late 2021, where he covers the team’s four full season minor league affiliates.
Tim started Pirates Prospects in 2009 from his home in Virginia, which was 40 minutes from where Pedro Alvarez made his pro debut in Lynchburg. That year, the Lynchburg Hillcats won the Carolina League championship, and Pirates Prospects was born from Tim's reporting along the way. The site has grown over the years to include many more writers, and Tim has gone on to become a credentialed MLB reporter, producing Pirates Prospects each year, and will publish his 11th Prospect Guide this offseason. He has also served as the Pittsburgh Pirates correspondent for Baseball America since 2019. Behind the scenes, Tim is an avid music lover, and most of the money he gets paid to run this site goes to vinyl records.
Put guys in positions to succeed! It’s that simple.
Jack is a no doubt platoon bat, knew it from his time in the minors and played out last year when he was forced into action against lefties.
Suwinski is currently running the second best xwOBA in all of baseball.
All of baseball!
The most complete metric of hitter performance, combining walks, strikeouts, and quality of contact, shows he been the second most productive hitter in the game.
No better evidence of eye test failure than the handwringing over this guy. Your eyes are lying to you.
Suwinski/Gorski. Both high K high power individuals. Yet, the Bucs love one and not the other. Go figger.
This is an unbelievably loose comparison; these guys are two very different players.
How so? Lots of power. Fast. Good fielding. High K. Have I missed a comparison? One is Rh and one is LH. Other than that…..
And just because Gorski hasn’t made it to AAA doesn’t make it less valid. Suwinski was HORRIBLE at AAA LAST year.
Perspective:
Jack Suwinski, demoted due to struggles making contact, still carried a higher contact rate as a 23 yo facing big leaguers than Matt Gorski did as a 24 yo facing AA competition.
Gorski is a fun player but has next to zero chance of succeeding in the show.
Suwinski actually struck out MORE after he was sent down. And that ‘next to zero’ chance could apply to Suwinski, esp during one of his cold streaks. Gorski is NOT a RH Mason
Martin. You may be proven correct, but Gorski was rocketing thru the system until he got hurt.
And, that ‘younger’ argument has never set well with me. Development is not linear. Plus, if you can play, you can play. I am bullish on Gorski.
Whatever you gotta tell yourself, brother.
We’ll have to agree to disagree. We all have our ‘pet’ prospects. Some people here even like Nicky the K. 😂😂😂😂😂
Morans! 😉
One of the best jpgs of all time!
Unrelated, but I believe Pgh native mason miller is going to debut for the As tonight
good message, i didn’t realize he was from here. Looks like he went to Bethel Park & played at Waynesburg for 4 years.
Jack was focused on changing his load step & hip action in ST. It looked awful & he struggled through ST. Now it looks like he went back to last year’s load & swing which is good. He’s still young & learning & will find his grove.
I’m still amazed how far off evaluators were on his defense, rated as having a 20 Defensive value, indicating he was a DH only, no way would you think someone with a 20 value defense would be a starting CF in the MLB. He had a positive defensive value last year & is positive so far this year.
I marvel at the miss on defense rating too. Did scouts just get a couple of bad looks at him? FG had an article a few days ago about his defensive strides.
I mean way off on his defense, i don’t understand.
For reference, last year Andrew Vaughn had the worst defensive value, at a -27.4 value, yet was rated as having a 40 defensive value. For him, he was probably rated based on his 1st base abilities, whil playing outfield, so that can be explained away.
Josh Bell, who we all know as a butcher at 1st, was rated as having a 30/40 defensive value. I just have a tough time wrapping my mind around how bad a 20 value could possibly be.
No bigger wild ass guesses in scouting than defense and hit tool.
But I’d still say more credit due to Jack here than fault in the scouting. He legitimately improved leaps and bounds. Scouting report are a snapshot in time, and this one came before he put in the work to improve.
Agreed. I think he really put some obvious work in and to make yourself into an MLB average from what may have been a minus/minus status is really impressive Those guys who make such visible strides just to stick in the majors as a contributor (not a star) are the ones I find myself rooting for most of all.
A 20 in the field…David Ortiz? Johnny Damon’s arm?
The problem has never been when Jack is hot, it when he disappears for way to long of stretches. Also he may be a strong side of a platoon player and this means CSN is becoming redundant, which means jack should be in rightfield and some else plays center ahem swag pipes.
Swaggerty can’t hit
Joe-Suwinski platoon should be productive all year.
True, but Suwinski is too young to give up on him as an everyday player and Joe is hitting RHP well and doesn’t have a big split over his career. So maybe a semi-platoon where rest days are chosen wisely but without Jack always sitting against lefties or Joe always sitting against righties. I think they’re doing that and the only minor complaint I have about playing time is that CSN is in a tough position where he’s not earning regular playing time but he needs regular ABs to develop.
The Rays do this stuff all the time.
Ridiculous! Come on man!
I see it as protection, and more importantly production by taking advantage of their strengths and limiting their weaknesses, they both have a long enough history.
I may regret saying this later, but I’m really liking Joe’s game. So while a platoon still gives Suwinski plenty of ABs, I don’t want Joe limited to facing the relatively few lefties we face.
Thanks much for the video. I watched Quick Pitch this morning, and not just to watch Kelly Nash! They highlighted Jack’s first AB where he took the ball out to LF. Just watching that video is proof enough of what he is doing – his head and eyes are on that ball all the way to the bat – he is really seeing the ball well!
The Pirates have a good thing going with the blend of youth and experience, and the last few guys to the dance – Hayes and Suwinski – are really starting to do well. Ke has taken to the leadoff position. The pitching has been much better and coming sooner than was expected, the bats are hot, and the Bucs are playing excellent overall defense. Playing with confidence makes a big difference.
Hayes has a 60 wRC+ and even in the microscopic sample since 4/10 at leadoff he’s putting the ball on the ground ~55% of the time. Guy is the worst hitting 3B among qualified starters last 3 years.
And yet I always get pounded here when I question his bat.
fWAR overvalues defense massively so any rightthinking sabr-fan does, too, and will come at you for not giving it it’s due.
What part of my post mention anything about his glove?
I’ll wait.
It didn’t but his glove is why folks are willing to champion him because they overrate defense.
A run saved is exactly 100% equal to a run scored. They are identical. Of equal blue.
It’s easier to prevent runs than to score them in an environment where an excellent on base percentage is 4 out of 10.
The Rays cut Jose Molina the season following them boasting about him saving more than 50 runs behind the plate.
Kebryan isn’t Molina-bad, but there clearly is not the dogmatic view in the game that you say there is.
NL teams didn’t acquire DH-types and stick them at 1B or LF because there’s very obviously value in well-rounded players regardless of runs saved vs runs created.
It is good that he saves runs, because he is below average in generating them. Who would you rather have at third? A Gold Glover or a Silver Slugger? I’ll take the latter.
Great, great pop! Almost as beautiful as Suwinski’s swing
tell me again about it when we leave coors field