I’ve been playing a lot of chess in the last year.
They very first decision you’re faced with in a chess game is your beginning move. Like choosing a leadoff hitter in baseball, that first push forward will unfold the rest of the strategy.
The endgame is simple in chess, just as it’s simple in baseball: Win. In chess, it’s a checkmate, regardless of the piece delivering the blow. Baseball typically has a designated pitcher who comes on for the baseball equivalent of checkmate. No matter what metaphor I choose, the concept of a closer in baseball sounds very limiting to team strategy. But I digress.
The most complex thing about the game of chess is the Middlegame. If you consider the Middlegame of baseball to be the fourth through sixth inning, you might find the same complexities.
The complexity of the Middlegame — in both sports — is that there’s no real clean shift from the beginning moves. We could say that the Middlegame in baseball is innings 4-6, but I think we’ve all seen many Pirates games over the years where the other team has been into their Endgame by the fourth inning.
After a small sample of seven games — in which the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone 5-2 — the biggest trend I’ve noticed is that Derek Shelton is executing a great Middlegame.
The key to the Middlegame — in both sports — is that you can quickly and massively swing the tide of the game in your favor with the right strategy and the right execution.
I believe that last part is crucial. It’s the difference between Winning, versus watching your fireman reliever warming up as the other side swings the Middlegame in their favor. Having the right pieces in place is crucial. It’s the difference between trying to spark a rally with a Quad-A guy on a 100-loss team, versus a 23-year-old speedy contact hitter with speed to torment the opposing pitcher.
Thus far, Shelton’s Middlegame strategy and execution has looked like the strength of the Pirates.
JI-HWAN BAE SPARKING THE OFFENSE
Thus far, Ji-Hwan Bae has been a playmaker, a game changer, and whatever label you want to describe the performance of a player who would typically be batting higher than eighth in the order.
The Pirates have Bae hitting eighth to start the game, one batter ahead of whoever their defensive specialist, weak-hitting catcher happens to be that night. Don’t start calling for Bae to move up in the lineup just yet.
Oneil Cruz has been the leadoff hitter for the Pirates, followed by Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana. The one-through-four of this lineup is stacked like you’re facing the middle of the order right out of the gate. The Pirates don’t throw a speedy leadoff guy out of the gate to set the table for Oneil Cruz. They send Cruz, Reynolds, and their veteran free agent additions after you immediately.
That’s the beginning.
The most consistent spot in the lineup, beyond those four, has been Ji-Hwan Bae at eighth. Bae has rotated between starting at second base and center field, and has started all but one game. He’s hit eighth, always ahead of a catcher.
Once the game is underway, anyone can lead off an inning. There is research that shows the number eight hitter sees a lot of at-bats either leading off or batting second in an inning. This particular study at Beyond the Boxscore was back in 2014, but it shows cleanly that the number eight hitter bats first or second in an inning 45% of the time.
Where this seems to happen most often is in the third or fourth inning, around the Middlegame. We’ve already seen this play out in both Opening Days this season.
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Heading into the fourth inning in Cincinnati on March 30th, Ji-Hwan Bae came up second with one out. He doubled to left, and followed that up by stealing third. The pressure allowed Austin Hedges to draw a walk, followed by an Oneil Cruz walk, followed by a Bryan Reynolds walk, followed by an Andrew McCutchen walk, followed by a wild pitch against Carlos Santana, and it was suddenly 4-1 Pirates. Whew.
If Bae gets on with less than two outs, those weak hitting defensive catchers don’t look like such an easy out.
The pitcher has to worry about Bae on the bases, and that “middle of the lineup” stretch that is waiting for him as the batting order turns over.
Maybe you can get that catcher out, but there isn’t an easy out in sight for awhile after him.
MLB pitchers aren’t machines. They can’t all block out Oneil Cruz on the on-deck circle when Ji-Hwan Bae is tormenting them on the bases and Jason Delay has the audacity to not accept his role as a defense-only catcher.
The same situation came up in the Middlegame in yesterday’s home opener against the White Sox at PNC Park. The Pirates were down 5-3 after a rough beginning to the game from Rich Hill.
Bae was leading off the fourth inning, and provided the spark needed to bring the Pirates back into the game, reaching base on a head first slide. He moved to third when Delay singled, and scored on a single from Cruz that fell just out of reach of shortstop Tim Anderson.
I credit that hit by Cruz somewhat to Bae. The ball Cruz hit was landing between the shortstop and center fielder. They both are thinking the same thing: Try to catch the ball and prevent Bae from scoring to maintain the two run lead. When you add extra things for fielders to consider, they don’t produce the best fielding results. Bae on the bases makes the opposing defense just a little less sharp, a little more distracted, and we’re seeing that pay off with a lot of hard hits that have been just out of reach of opposing defenders.
One play after Cruz batted in Bae, Bryan Reynolds — the number two hitter in the actual order — came to the plate and blasted a three run homer with one out.
The Pirates lost their lead in the fifth inning, but repeated the cycle in the bottom half. Bae came up with Connor Joe on second base with one out. He singled through the left side. Delay followed with another hard hit single through the left side. Cruz walked. Then, Reynolds came through again with a Little League grand slam.
I don’t care what inning it is. Having your best hitter at the plate with runners on base is a strategy that is as old as the game.
Are you kidding, Bryan Reynolds?!?! pic.twitter.com/iJBTuPeDvl
— MLB (@MLB) April 7, 2023
Once the Pirates get beyond the opening of the game, they have Bae setting the table often. Sure, he’s followed by weak hitting catchers. I don’t think the pitcher is thinking about that.
I think the opposing pitcher realizes that every single time that Ji-Hwan Bae reaches base, Oneil Cruz steps out of the dugout and Bryan Reynolds gets up off the bench to grab his bat.
DAURI MORETA
March 30th. Cincinnati.
Mitch Keller gives up a triple with two outs in the fifth inning, allowing the Reds to tie the score.
The Pirates called on Dauri Moreta, who was acquired from the Reds last December in a trade for Kevin Newman. Moreta pitched 42 innings over two seasons with the Reds, posting a 5.14 ERA, and a 43:14 K/BB ratio. His only assignment on this day: Get one strikeout in three batters.
Moreta walked the first two, then struck out the third with an animated celebration. He returned for two outs in the sixth inning, before turning the ball over to Rob Zastryzny, who ended up getting the win.
How did Zastryzny get in position for the win?
After pitching 1.1 innings, Ji-Hwan Bae led off the following frame with a walk, stole second, moved to third on an Austin Hedges groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly by Cruz. But this isn’t about Bae’s role in the Middlegame.
Facing his old team, Moreta shut down the Reds scoring right as it was rallying — taking control of the game by shutting down the Cincinnati Middlegame.
He did the same thing on April 3rd against the Red Sox.
Johan Oviedo was holding onto a two run lead, and Boston was pressuring with two on and two outs. Moreta had two batters to get the final out, which he got by striking out Connor Wong.
The next night, Moreta came in to relieve Roansy Contreras in the fifth inning, striking out Adam Duvall immediately to shut down the first-and-third with two outs threat. Moreta stuck around for two more outs in the fifth, and ended up getting the win for preserving the two run lead. Middlegame executed.
Yesterday was a similar story in the home opener.
Moreta replaced Rich Hill after Hill gave up a homer to allow the White Sox to tie the game. Moreta came in with no outs in the fifth and pitched a one-two-three inning with two strikeouts. The Pirates scored five runs in the bottom half of the inning, as detailed in the section above titled “Ji-Hwan Bae”.
Moreta gave up a walk in the sixth, before settling down and getting three outs in the sixth for his second win of the young season. Middlegame executed.
Derek Shelton has an early trend in which starters he will allow a longer leash in the fifth inning. Keller and Hill seem to have longer leashes than Oviedo and Contreras, for example.
Having a guy like Moreta to turn to in these Middlegame moments is huge — assuming Moreta continues to pitch shutdown outings. Thus far, he’s been able to single-handedly turn the tide on three opposing teams, just like Bae on offense.
DEFENSIVE CATCHERS
Austin Hedges hit for a .163 average and a .489 OPS last year. He hasn’t batted over .200 and hasn’t had an OPS over .600 since 2018. The Pirates signed him to be their starting catcher.
Tyler Heineman only has 213 at-bats in the majors, including three this season. He has a .216 average and a .560 OPS, despite going 1-for-3 with a walk and a run in his lone game this season.
Jason Delay had a .213 average and a .536 OPS in his MLB debut last year. His .220 average and .591 OPS in Triple-A didn’t suggest that there was more coming.
The Pirates are sacrificing one spot in the lineup, in the age of the Designated Hitter in the National League! The horror!
Like a Monty Python sketch, that spot in the lineup occupied by the catchers isn’t quite dead yet.
Delay, for example, has gone 5-for-13 with a double and a home run. He’s benefitting from Bae getting on base ahead of him, and Cruz with protection behind him. I wouldn’t count on this production, but I could see this catching group combining for decent offensive numbers — better than the abysmal looking results they all carried into the season.
The real value, I believe, comes with the defensive intangibles. Defense behind the plate is one of those things that I don’t think will ever be appreciated outside the game. That’s because it mostly exists in theory.
How much of the success in the Middlegame from young relievers like Moreta and Zastryzny can be attributed to having a solid game caller behind the plate?
The Pirates have seen consistent results from a group of relievers who all came in minor moves. All of those guys are playing up, and I have to think the consistent solid game calling and leadership behind the plate is playing a role in the consistent results.
The Pirates have Bae as a game changer in the Middlegame, capable of sparking the offense.
They’ve got Moreta as a game changer on the other side, capable of shutting the opposing offense down.
Both of these players are riding high on small samples of success, but there’s nothing with either player to suggest they can’t continue.
The Middlegame is when the game can swing one way or another in wild fashion, similar to what we saw on Friday. I think the best defense against an opponent’s Middlegame is to have some level of consistency on at least one side of the ball.
The defense from these catchers begins to look like a stabilizing aspect for the Pirates in back and forth games like Friday.
Especially when the Pirates are finally getting sparks from the bottom of the order and their middle relievers — allowing them to control the Middlegame.
PIRATES SCOPE
I added this section to last night’s Pirates recap, for a closer look at the MLB guys. Today, I’m focusing on the standout prospects from last night’s minor league games.
**Thomas Harrington was drafted 36th overall last year, and made his pro debut in Bradenton last night. Harrington, who signed for $2.05 million out of the prep ranks, struck out seven batters in five innings on 63 pitches. Check out the Daily Video Rundown last night for a look at his nasty slider.
**Anthony Solometo made his High-A debut, giving up one run in four innings, with a walk and five strikeouts. His velocity was up a bit in camp, but was 90-91, hitting 93 MPH last night, which is where he was last year. Solometo has the potential to end this season as one of the best pitching prospects in the system, and I’m really interested to see how he fares when he pitches in Greensboro this year.
**Endy Rodriguez went 2-for-4 with a walk. All I’m saying is this: Can you imagine when the Pirates lineup has Bae, Endy, Cruz, Reynolds, McCutchen, and Santana in a row?
TODAY ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
**The Pirates pick first in the 2023 draft. John Dreker, our resident draft expert, has been profiling candidates for the number one pick every Saturday. This week he looks at Wyatt Langford, the outfielder from Florida with tremendous raw power potential.
**Anthony Murphy looked at how Ji-Hwan Bae continues to be a difference maker in today’s Daily update.
**My column yesterday looked at how the positive vibes in the MLB clubhouse could eventually impact younger players like Endy Rodriguez.
**Ethan Hullihen broke down the Pirates Opening Day payroll, putting them at around $75 million for the start of the 2023 season.
**In the latest Roundtable, we picked our sleeper prospects to follow in the Pirates system.
**If you missed it from earlier this week, check out our minor league previews to see how the Pirates stack up at each level:
Triple-A: Indianapolis Indians
Double-A: Altoona Curve
High-A: Greensboro Grasshoppers
Single-A: Bradenton Marauders
