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Williams: Three Signs That The Pirates Might Be a Good Team

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The Chicago Cubs. The LA Dodgers. The Pittsburgh Pirates.

Three teams lead the National League in runs scored heading into Thursday’s contests. Raise your hand if you had the Pirates competing with the top offenses in the league a few weeks into the season.

The Pirates return home to face the Cincinnati Reds this weekend, carrying a 12-7 record. They’re coming off a three game sweep of the Colorado Rockies, after splitting two games with the Cardinals on the road. It’s difficult to say at this point if the Pirates are actually a good team, or if they’re benefitting from beating up on bad teams.

For example, they just scored 33 runs in three games against the Rockies, which gave them a third of their runs on the season, and propelled them into Dodgers and Cubs territory. On the flip side, they gave the Rockies about 27% of their runs allowed this season in those three games, almost doubling the normal average of 5.6 runs per game allowed by Colorado.

The Pirates have fared well against teams with losing records. Their offense has stepped up. The pitching has kept pace to give a positive run differential. It’s too early to say if they’re a good team, or off to a hot start. There are three factors that I think point to the fact that this team might be the real deal.

The Depth Has Been Tested

Oneil Cruz went down early in the season, and will miss four months.

JT Brubaker will miss the entire season, and most of 2024.

Ji-Man Choi is currently out for eight weeks.

The Pirates have seen their fair share of injuries to start the season. What they’ve also seen is their depth rising to the occasion.

In the place of Cruz, Rodolfo Castro has been on fire. This year, the second baseman has a .319/.418/.511 line with two home runs in 47 at-bats on the season. He has a .346 average and an OPS of 1.068 in the last seven games, which has been largely with Cruz down.

Johan Oviedo stepped in the rotation to replace Brubaker. Through his first four starts, Oviedo has a 2.22 ERA in 24.1 innings — which includes a rough first outing of the year. In his three other starts, Oviedo has allowed two runs in 19.2 innings, with 21 strikeouts and four walks.

The Pirates entered the season with several first base options. Ji-Man Choi will now miss two months, but the fact that Connor Joe is hitting so well helps to mitigate this loss. Joe has a .340/.426/.596 line in 47 at-bats this season.

When you lose your most exciting young player, one of your most reliable starters, and one of your offseason additions to shore up a weak area, the expectation is that you won’t continue winning. The Pirates have seen the next man step up consistently, and haven’t seen a drop off in production, despite the injuries.

WINNING ON THE ROAD

If the Pirates were winning right now at PNC Park and losing elsewhere, things might be different. The fact is that they’re 9-4 on the road, and 3-3 at home. The latter record might get a boost with four games coming up against the Reds this weekend.

Bad teams can maintain winning at home. Good teams win on the road. In all of baseball, only the Braves have more road wins than the Pirates this year, with the Brewers tied for second.

This hasn’t been the case in the past. The Pirates have found silver linings at home, but have struggled on long road trips. I believe this is a mentality and preparation issue, which can be very easy to have for young players. It’s possible this could be the early effects of the veteran impact.

The Pirates are going up against the Reds this weekend, who are 1-5 this season on the road, and in last place in the NL Central.

GOOD VIBRATIONS

A lot has been made about the good vibez coming from the clubhouse. Those are apparent to anyone who sees a Pirates hitter wielding a sword in the dugout after a home run, or to anyone who watches the team celebrate after a victory.

When a team is flowing with positive energy, they can overcome a lot. Expectations from the outside. Injuries. And bouncing back from a loss.

The Pirates lost the second and third game of the season to the Reds. Since then, they’ve played 16 games and have yet to lose multiple games in a row. That stretch has included a four game winning streak and a three game winning streak.

This team seems like it feels the wins and forgets the losses.

That’s a winning combo.

PIRATES SCOPE

**Ke’Bryan Hayes might be starting to heat up. In the last seven days, the third baseman has a .360/.452/.640 line. Granted, all of the Pirates numbers are inflated after Colorado. What I love about his game right now is that he continues hitting the ball hard, with his 93.1 MPH average exit velocity ranking among the best in the game. His problem in the past has been a launch angle conducive to ground balls. Last year, his average angle was 5.2. This year? 14.0. With that velocity and that angle, we can expect more of these numbers. It’s Ke’Bryan Hayes breakout SZN.

**Speaking of depth, I mentioned how Rodolfo Castro has emerged in the place of Oneil Cruz. That would have left the bench short, but Mark Mathias has stepped in nicely for Castro. In seven games, Mathias has a .292/.370/.333 line.

**How about Colin Holderman as a standout in the early season? All he’s done so far is pitch eight shutout innings in eight appearances, all coming in the eighth inning of winning games. Holderman lives up to his name with five holds thus far. The Pirates needed someone to complement David Bednar, and by the early look of things, they’ve got a strong candidate here.

TODAY ON PIRATES PROSPECTS

Pirates Recap: Pirates Finish Coors Sweep With Blowout Win

Prospect Watch: Malcom Nunez Homers; Anthony Solometo Racks Up Strikeouts

**Ryan Palencer talked with top pitching prospect Quinn Priester, who feels his athleticism fuels his in-game adjustments on the mound.

**Yesterday, Anthony wrote about how the Pirates are getting more from Jack Suwinski by using him more strategically.

**On the injury front, Ji-Man Choi is expected to miss eight weeks. In the minors, Chris Owings and Abrahan Gutierrez both landed on the injured list.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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