The Pittsburgh Pirates handed out one of the biggest signing bonuses in franchise history to sign outfielder Shalin Polanco.
He made his way to the US last year, playing in the Florida Complex League, eventually making it to Bradenton as a 19-year-old this season.
Still being young and raw, it wasn’t too much a surprise that Polanco struggled out the gate. Strikeouts have been a big issue, with a 36.4% rate in the month of April, and he batted just .186 with an OPS of .596.
With May almost over, Polanco is still having his struggles but is taking steps in the right direction.
The strikeout rate is under 30%, which has brought his overall mark to about 31%. The average isn’t ideal, but between the ball into play more, and a slightly below average BABIP of .250 speaks to a potential jump up.
After a horrible series against Lakeland earlier in the month where he went 2-for-21, Polanco has picked up hits in 11-of-the-last-13 games he’s played in (11-of-12 when you take out the game he pinched ran in).
Maybe the thing most impressive thing about Polanco has been just how hard he has hitting the ball, especially when factoring in his age.
Shalin Polanco opens up the scoring with a solo shot. Hit it so hard Savant couldn’t register an EV, apparently. #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/fVfeNBFsuU
— Anthony Murphy (@__Murphy88) May 28, 2023
Sunday he hit his sixth home run of the season, and has put up these exit velocity numbers on the year.
86.89 average exit velocity
102.77 90th percentile exit velocity
35% hard hit rate
31.25% sweet spot rate
8.75% barrel rate
20% line drive rate
The average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and sweet spot rate are all right at major league average, and his barrel rate is above.
Barrel rates measures the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle, so at 19-years-old he is already better than the average major leaguer at truly driving the ball into play.
He’s also flashed some speed as well, stealing four bases in the month of May, giving him six on the season.
How the season has started for Polanco reminds me a bit of something Jonathan Johnston said last year about Rodolfo Nolasco, another upside outfielder with plenty of raw tools trying to put everything together.
He mentioned how some players you have to take a step back and look how things progress over the long-term. So while the numbers still aren’t quite where you need them, if you can step back and see the right kind of progress throughout the season, you know he will be heading in the right direction.
Prospect Notes
— Sean Sullivan finished out the week with a total pitching line of 11 IP, 8 H, 4 ER (3.27 ERA), 2 BB, 10 K. He couldn’t continue his string of outings completing at least six innings pitched, but was impressive regardless.
We’ve seen the importance of good pitching depth this season, with two of the original rotation members hurt, and a significant minor league option also out for the season.
5 K's for @Sean_Sully1719 in 4 innings tonight!@GoYardGoats lead 1-0 on Sunday Night Baseball in Curve, PA!
LISTEN: https://t.co/aioWvW3Svf
WATCH: https://t.co/6GP894jPtF pic.twitter.com/4bSSCkfCov— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) May 28, 2023
Sullivan doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the world, but the floor is becoming more and more evident as a potential back of the rotation starter.
— A week ago I would have said Luis Ortiz would end up being the odd man out whenever the team returned as close to full health as possible.
Now, not to say that I’m giving up on a 23-year-old former Top-100 prospect (Roansy Contreras), but it’s starting to feel like there is more of an intrigue factor with Ortiz at this point, especially as he continues to implement the sinker more.
Contreras has effectively become a two-pitch pitcher, but only one of them has been effective so far this season.
I’m still unsure of where I see Ortiz landing right now, but it does feel like he has the highest upside of anyone in the upper levels not named Mitch Keller right now, with a pretty safe floor of a really good high-leverage reliever.
At the very least, there wasn’t much left for Ortiz to solve in Triple-A, especially with how effective the slider was there.
Daily Video Rundown
Three runs score on another bases-loaded triple for @connorscott24! pic.twitter.com/hjCiovJKei
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) May 28, 2023
Connor Scott usually makes it on here for his defensive work, but hits a bases-clearing triple here.
Thomas Harrington worked a very fast six innings in his last start, here’s a look back at it.
+ postsAnthony began writing over 10 years ago, starting a personal blog to cover the 2011 MLB draft, where the Pirates selected first overall. After bouncing around many websites covering hockey, he refocused his attention to baseball, his first love when it comes to sports. He eventually found himself here at Pirates Prospects in late 2021, where he covers the team’s four full season minor league affiliates.
Glad to see Gorski starting to hit and playing first base. It might be a waste of his ability to play a very good outfield but the Pirates need a first base man that can hit and hopefully field.
Raise it! and I raise my glass (just one more before bed) to my man, Rodolfo. 2 hits tonight and scores the game winner.
Somebody try to convince me that Hayes’ defensive value trumps his horrible hitting.
It is an open question. If the Hayes doesn’t progress offensively in the next 6-18 months they will need to seriously consider playing him. He has real value to a strong offensive team but he is definitely weighing down our offense.
Maybe spend a couple hours watching Pedro Alvarez footage?
Best I got.
Moreta is a magician. Also oviedo really did not get hit hard today, really just inability to throw strikes kept him from a stellar outing
Newman is a more useful player than a lot of folks gave him credit for, but so far that looks like a very fair trade on both sides.
More outs on the bases. It has become a defining characteristic of May.
Come on attack the zone
Ah they did the ole opener switcharoo
Those bass terds
Ok lets call the game while we are up
Joe’s in the 3 hole with a RHer on the mound.
Shows what I know, nobody on though maybe Joe should lead off.
😉
A bad sign for the strength of our lineup
You think Shelton would at least put the hitters that have been hitting lately in a group instead of spreading them out. Only Cutch and Marcano together, why not Suwinski 3rd, or put Bae in the leadoff followed by Marcano, Cutch, and Suwinski.
Sabol is DH tonite, another opportunity to kick BC while he’s down by having a great game vs Bucs. I like Sabol, wishing him well, he’s in a good place in SF.
Oh boy, kellington with 6BB in 2.2
Article on Termarr in PBN
https://pittsburghbaseballnow.com/termarr-johnson-finding-his-way-in-return-from-injured-list/
He started off 4-for-26 with 16 whiffs. Since then, 18-for-55 with 19 whiffs. The whiffs need to keep slowing down, but it’s looking much more positive.
Thx for the added background.
Ha, first AB tonight Termarr fell behind 0-2, then took a pitch low and away to LF for a double.
Hope he uses the entire field, some of his best contact was to left last year.
This is killing me how little the Bradenton games have been streamed this year.
I noticed the other day that MiL games are on the MLB app on the tv. Late Pirate game today so thought I’d check out Johnson for the first time. Guess not with no broadcast.
Starting to look like the Pirates found their 2bmen in Marcano. Bae might be a bench / utility type and Castro might be an overseas player.
They really need to figure out something for CF. Suwinski is better suited as the strong side of a platoon with Joe in RF.
I still wish they’d use this time (Cruz being out) to truly find out what they have in Castro. Bae is pretty clearly a super utility guy/pinch runner off the bench at best, while Castro does at least has enough power to potentially become an everyday 2B/3B if he can learn how to hit RHP.
For quite a while after they got him, I wasn’t impressed at all. That’s certainly changed.
Man, he’s got that quick bat through the zone. Out of the three, he’s the best defender, too.
The metrics at FG seem to buy fully into what he’s done so far at the plate. It’s not BABIP luck.
The defensive metrics like his D a good bit at second. Not so much at short, but he’s been moving around a lot, which imo doesn’t help a young guy. You have to wonder how good he could be if he just stayed at second. Or whether he could stick at short.
21 y/o that was clearly rushed by him getting the bat knocked out of his hands since the trade. He’s really turned it on now that he’s matured a bit physically. Excited to see how he progresses.
See that’s the most interesting part of all.
He hasn’t really matured at all physically.
Max exit velo, the closest proxy we have to strength, has not even budged within half a standard deviation and he’s certainly not substantially larger or more yoked.
It’s his average exit velo that has exploded, and this tracks with a bunch of player dev research FanGraphs posted earlier this year.
Basically, it’s exceptionally rare for players to actually increase over all strength but they can increase overall performance by increasing the consistency with which they strike the ball.
Tucu had a 19.1 mph max-avg gap last year, which would’ve made this list of breakout candidates:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/some-breakout-hitter-candidates-courtesy-of-exit-velocity-percentiles/
Now no hitter in baseball has an avg above 90 and a max below 109, so Tucu is gonna regress some with a larger sample, but it still feels a lot more real than we should expect from just getting stronger. Great player dev story.
Switching the subject, but you were wondering the other day whether anybody had studied the impact of banning the shift. (At least that’s my memory.). FG has a piece up now concluding the rule changes have had little impact on offense. It’s helped LH hitters marginally, RH not at all.
Ha, what timing. Thanks for the heads up.
What’s funny is, the one change that mattered is the one that didn’t directly involve baseball. Games are shorter. Make hitters get in the effing box and make pitchers throw the effing ball. Voila! Game is better.
Really insightful comment NMR.
Feels like he definitely still has room to grow strength-wise while continuing to retain his agility and ability to play MIF
True. Have to give credit for good scouting there.
Hopefully all is well with Tim, and we get some new content this week.
Weekly/daily reminder that harrington needs to not be in bradenton right now. Other orgs might have him fast tracked trying to debut next year if he was more appropriately scheduled to run through A+/AA this year
New mock posted on ESPN, more of a chaos version where Pgh picks Clark and signs him underslot.
Oops, didn’t see this below. I share Wilbur’s opinion and think Clark looks like Moniak 2.0. Don’t overthink it BC.
Polanco can be frustrating. The athleticism and power in the swing are obvious, but his approach is all over the place.
Early this year, he was taking a ton of pitches and his walk rate was way up. (With the low quality of competition in the FSL these days, you can do that all day long.) But he wasn’t hitting anything. Then he went back to hacking and had an 0-for-20-something slump. Since that ended, he’s 15-for-48. But he won’t turn 20 until next February, so . . . .
I’ll add that he’s a good outfielder, inc. in CF. The speed is just pretty good, but I’ve seen him track down a lot of long drives and he doesn’t wander all over the OF the way young OFs mostly do any more.
Would be nice to get an update to the Depth Chart on this site.
I have no access to edit it. We’re all, once again, cut off without explanation.
This is a little bizarre. He went off the grind and the only contributor is Murph?
It’s a bit complicated. We can draft articles, but can’t post them. Only Tim can do that. (Ordinarily, most content here gets posted immediately by the writer once it’s done.). We can’t access drafts, which impacts the PW and other things because they get written from templates. The templates are stored as “drafts,” so we can’t access them. None of us can access the photo library at all, so we can’t add photos to drafts. I can’t access the depth chart or player pages at all because the system categorizes them as “pages” rather than “posts,” and “pages” are currently inaccessible entirely.
Looks like PP is no longer a daily news site but more like an amateur blog where the owner adds new content as the mood hits. Oh, well, it sort of matches the Pirates’ owner in his amateurish and cheap philosophy of managing a franchise.
Looks like somebody got pegged last night and is still recovering.
I’ll adamantly defend Tim as a long time subscriber (and still contributing) and participant. He shared about a week ago where things are and I took it as ‘be patient’ as he works towards how to best manage everything. If you enjoyed what it was then let’s all sit tight for a while. Frustration is very fair as to his credit he built a site we all go to for info from he and all the writers, however cheap shots are not deserved.
A cheap shot is unfair criticism. I think the criticism is deserved. Decide what you want to do after game 162. Don’t pull a Garbo 50 games in when you have a responsibility to the followers of your site. Mine was more cheap snark than cheap shot.
Splitting hairs… call it cheap whatever you want. I’ll stick to my understanding of Tim’s update and his other updates on he and this site and my support of him. This isn’t an IRS website not working on April 14.
Sometimes life doesnt wait for the end of 162
Hang in there, Tim.
Isn’t that pretty common with some international countries? The foundational teachings are just lacking. Might just be my own ignorance too, I just assume they don’t get the coaching from 5 years old and up like in the US.
The tradition is that the buscones train these guys to look good in workouts, so you’re signing a guy based on BP. I know teams are looking at ways to scout based on actual baseball games, but I don’t know how much progress they’ve made. So it’s not just lack of coaching, it often can be counter-productive coaching.
The encouraging thing with Polanco is that, every year so far, he’s made substantial progress after the early season. So he certainly seems to be coachable.
Scouting actual games would be a partial solution to the ‘sandlot’ baseball played by some (most?) international players, but I suspect it’s not going to transpire. International player agents aren’t stupid, and they will resist showcasing their players in any but the most advantageous ways, i.e., batting practice, bullpen sessions, etc. They’re selling raw talent for baseball not baseball players. A possible solution would be to initially emphasize fundamental field play over exploiting the raw talent of the selected players, at least for a time. I’m having difficulty explaining what I mean. MLB is responsible for teaching ‘baseball’ to its recruits. Some do it well, like the Cardinals, and Dodgers, and some don’t do it very well. Unfortunately, the Pirates appear to be one of the ‘don’ts.’
Yesterday, I watched three pitches of the Pirates game. Those three pitches ended the Pirates top of the first inning, the last of which resulted in an absurd double play. It was enough to turn me away, at least for a time. It seems Pirate players reaching the majors through the Pirates minor league system, even when they reside there for a short time, are not prepared to play in the majors. Why or how this consistently occurs is a mystery, but something is wrong. It’s impossible to get excited about another talented Pirate prospect when the journey could likely result in another unprepared, mediocre player, at least while he’s a Pirate. This case is particularly relevant because his name is Polanco, which recalls an incomprehensible failure of a VERY talented player.
I’m sorry to be so negative. I understand young players have difficulty adjusting to the majors and sometimes make comical mistakes, but these young Pirates are particularly awful. They don’t adjust and the mistakes keep coming. It’s no longer funny.
Using this thread as a random vent for how terrible MLB is at managing its business. I have barely been able to watch baseball all year. I have YouTube TV. Because of failed negotiations between MLB and YT the MLB network is no longer avail there. I live in Columbus, OH. MLB provides exclusive broadcasting rights to its Regional Sports Network partners—most of whom are collapsing as Ethan has covered here before. This exclusivity is a 200 mile radius from each MLB city. Thus, I am considered in the “local market” of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit, despite the fact i can’t drive to any stadium in under 90 minutes (3+ hours for PIT/DET). And because of the collapse of the RSNs, YT also has no current contracts with any of them—no AT&T PIT, no Fox Sports OH or DET. And even if I buy MLB Extra Innings, I am blocked from watching those teams due to RSN local market monopolies. This also applies to free stuff like MLBs free games of the day. So party like its 1976 because all i get to watch is like the Sat Afternoon game of the week and Sun Night Baseball. MLB has cast its lot with Direct TV (dying medium) and RSNs (practically dead medium) and left millions of viewers like me out in the cold. They won’t even take my money in exchange for my viewership. Honest to God, this is how they run their business.
BS. I remember moving from Pittsburgh to a small place called Middletown outside of Harrisburg when I worked for the government. Was psyched to get NHL Center Ice because this was prime years of playing the Red Wings in the Finals and consistently great teams. Quickly found out it was blocked for some random reason in Middletown but I could go a little down the road to Hershey to watch them in a bar. From my experience sitting in a bar for 3 hours 2-3 times a week would cost more than Center Ice after a 3 game stretch. Did get into watching out of town games. It was cool because they had the local commercials. I remember thinking Edmonton arena sure could use more lighting. High def makes a big difference.
I get absolutely everything, including PPV sports, movies & you can even watch shows that was on 40 years ago commercial free with this. A friend of mine owns it.
All you need is the internet.
I don’t know how Tim would feel about me putting it out there, but if he’s OK with it. I’ll post more info.
Beastmode Tv boxes are on sale from now until April 10th… 2 for 480, includes 2 boxes and 1 year of service… includes over 7k live tv channels to include all locals, all sporting events, over 20k movies, and over 3k series, to include all subscription content. It’s $125/yr per box after 1st year.
I’ve had mine for 3 years now.
Using this thread as a random vent for how terrible MLB is at managing its business.
That’s fair game for any thread on any topic.
I’m in central PA 150 miles from Pittsburgh Philadelphia ,Baltimore and Washington and get blacked out ,I got mlb tv and ahem vpn to get pirates game on my computer. The worst part is the nfl mandated me a ravens fan and I very rarely get steelers games.
It 100% stupid how they don’t allow eyes to watch their product. Only suggestion, and I totally get how we shouldn’t HAVE to do this, is to get a VPN going so you can watch local games.
Good news in Indy last night:
Endy Rodriguez
Game stats: 4 for 5, one RBI, three runs
Season stats: .234/.327/.387, five doubles, two triples, four home runs, 14 RBIs, four steals, 34 games
3B Nick Gonzales
Game stats: 2 for 5, two doubles, two RBIs, two runs, one walk
Season stats: .252/.355/.430, nine doubles, three triples, four home runs, 15 RBIs, one steal, 38 games
Big games from both Rodriguez and Gonzales paved the way for a 12-6 win for the Indians over the Toledo Mud Hens.
Kiley’s mock draft has us picking max clark 1-1 with a plan to make someone drop to our second pick with promise of a 4mil bonus, naming LHP thomas white as a possible option
I think Clark is the only one not linked to Boras, if so good strategy to get info out that might be true might be bullship.
Thinking Kiley is just getting board with the Mocks as nothing is happening it the way that they top guys are performing to alter the mocks in the top of the round. Just trying to shack things up a bit in my opinion,
Worked so well with Lonnie White, let’s try it again!
Really, every freaking draft doesn’t have to be a chance to show you can game the system. Sometimes the system presents you with a gift. When that happens, you say, “Thank you, system.”
I can’t imagine if Lonnie would have went to PSU to play football. Probably would never gets hurt and is an All American? I always think they should go wild with bonuses with early rounds and give everyone after around the 10th pick the minimum. Not sure if that is exactly street legal.
I guess what I can’t decide is what is the correct gift as in my brain there are 3 possible excellent gifts. If there are significant (not debating what counts as significant for now) differences in signing demands, then I am not opposed to thinking about the person with the lower demand. I know that was not exactly your point (bypassing better talent for a gamble later), but my thought seemed to fit here.
We could say, “Thank you, system, for the choice among three marvelous gifts. I will do my best to choose wisely.”
Yeah. Bucs need to be grateful for this gift and not try and get cute. I fully back this.
Agreed. It rarely works out well when you try to beat the system. The Pirates have 3 possible top players. They need to take 1 of those. I have gone back and forth on which one I prefer, but 1 thing is sure. The Pirates should not think they got a better idea that no one else is thinking. There is nothing wrong with picking one of the players everyone else would pick.
Seriously. I wonder if fan of other teams have to have this same conversation when their team has the top selection. Or are Pirate fans that think “Please don’t screw this up”.
I get what you’re saying, I’m giving the front office a break on Nicky G. with the covid year and he was considered a safe bat. Davis looking like a good pick with strategy. Temarr as with the others still to early to tell.
Personally I like Crews over Langford, I think Crews slumping the last few weeks is him trying to do to much. His swing looked better earlier in the season when he was spraying the ball all over the field. He has better plate discipline and doesn’t chase breaking pitches low and away like I’ve seen Langford do. Both kill mistakes though.
I actually think Skenes is the best player overall but not by enough to pass on the hitters.
I also think the best overall college hitter isn’t Crews or Langford, but they’re better players overall than Schanuel.
Is Crews your final answer? I would like to know who I am going to be pulling for come draft day and I put my trust in you. It’s been Crews for me from just the videos and comments so far but haven’t watched them play. I agree with the Davis comment. I have faith in Termarr just because I want to. No other real reason.
Crews has Boras as an agent, which scares me a bit. Slot 1.1 has a $9.7 million value, 1.2 has $8.9, and 1.3 has $8.34. BC should have no problem saving $700,000 on pick 1 if not more. $9 million is the amount I’d go to for #1 on their board, if it’s more go see what #2 and #3 want. Then go back to the 1st guy and now offer $8.5 million and let them know you think they’re great but the record is under $8.3 million (under $8 million for pitchers) and that the slot values drop fast and the pirates are ready to move in another direction. (Slot 1.4 is worth $7.6 million)
This works because of the Davis pick in 2021, the pirates hold the leverage. I hope they get Crews but if he won’t budge off say $9.2 I’d already try to have the #2 guy ready to sign under $8.5 million because if they don’t go top 2 they ain’t getting that much.
Did not know Crews was with Boras. Further reason to go with Skenes.
I think Skenes is as well.
No it isn’t. That’s a Littlefield move, avoiding players because of their representation. That way lies madness and folly.
And you liked how the Cole negotiations went?
Yep, you got to know how to negotiate with him, I think I read he’s representing 4 of 5 in the top tier. He knows the drop off of slot values. The record is Torkleson from 2020 draft around $8.3 to $8.4 and it’s getting topped or reached by the first 3 picks most likely. Having the threat of under slot at all increases the pirates leverage because they have already proven that they are willing to cut a deal.
I pretty sure, not 100 percent though
Thanks. Will be interesting how it all pans out. Would like to get on a 3 way call just to hear how those conversations go.
I’ve always wanted to listen in on the negotiations / decisions etc. Of course I may hear realities I don’t want to know.
Or like a secret Santa where each GM picks another and writes a one page report on whoever they pick. No holding back. All the good and the bad. Like BC is always asking for MIF even when we offer mostly SP’s.
And this is that year. There are 3 fully legit #1 overall candidates. And with that said….Skenes.
If they have all 3 of the top college guys at essentially the same level, I dont mind looking at minor factors like signing demands, etc. I will be upset if they sign a lower player for less money for no good reason
The only way I would move from the top guys is for massive savings with a player like Chase Davis or Nolan Schanuel. I think Davis can definitely stay in center field and has a good chance to hit. I think Schanuel might be the best bat in the draft, he has power but not as much as the the top two. He’s limited to 1st maybe a corner outfield but he has less swing and miss than Crews or Langford and as good if not better eye than Crews. If you can sign one of these two for $4.5 million to $5 million in savings it leaves enough to work a deal at 42, 67, and 73.
I also think Schanuel might climb the rankings, I think he goes top 15 maybe even top 10, he’s eyesight is legit.
This is a bit radical for me lol, I was thinking if langford will take a million less than crews than that might sway me assuming they are otherwise largely rated the same
If you have time try to find some video of Schanuel, the highlights are good but some of his game footage is impressive. The dude doesn’t hardly strikeout, doesn’t chase bad pitches often, looks for his pitch, and has power. The kid must have some insanely good eyesight. I don’t even like his stance with his hands so high but it works for him. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as the other guys but his floor is right there with them or better. He was my hope at 42 but I really think he goes top 15 maybe top 10, he can flat out hit.
Surprised me lol
Sounds like a guy maybe we try to float to 42 by offering a big bonus to scare off other teams
I was thinking (dreaming) split the $9.7million at 1, the $2.0 at 42, the $1.1 at 67, $13.8 on Schanuel $5 Davis $4.2 and Witt $4.1 and have $500,000 left to get value later. Totally dreaming
I’m a big of fan of Thomas White but I’d be heated if they try and overthink this and try something like that. Crews,Skenes or Langford, pretty simple
Just read more about white. He would be a great option to scare off other teams with a huge signing bonus demand and then float him to 42 where we sign for well overslot
I’d be over the moon if they were able to, of course after drafting 1of the big 3. I think Cameron Johnson is an intriguing kid, big lefty with gas but seems to fatigue later in the season. Definitely reliever risk but big time upside if he were to figure it out
Hmm I had him a as 1b in March of this year, he does have talent and has a feel for hitting the other way and is very strong in the lower body so power should come.
No way!
I was very surprised too. He noted that crews is still the favorite to go first, but something like this is an increasingly likely scenario he is hearing chatter about. I am both concerned that the pirates may find a way to over- or under- think this pick lol
If they keep writing the same things not many will click, especially when draft coverage starts almost as soon as the drafting order is set.
Yes and no. McDaniel is also using his sources and he says throughout the piece that it really just takes one team to go off script and it throws the draft off-kilter.
I really don’t want them to draft Clark, because I think any three of the college players are better picks. They can certainly get creative later in the draft if they take one of the college guys too.
Jenkins maybe but Clark feels like way too much of a stretch.
Would obviously rather polanco hitting .400, but hes only 19 so i can be content with his tools shining through and having notable improvement