MITCH KELLER, RIGHT HANDED PITCHER
|Born: April 4, 1996
Drafted: 2nd Round, 64th Overall, 2014
How Acquired: Draft
High School: Xavier (IA) HS
Agent: Excel Sports Management
WTM’s PLAYER PROFILE
|Keller moved up rapidly in the draft rankings in his last year of high school as his velocity went from the mid- to upper-80s to 90-92, reaching 95, with good movement. His curve has been described as having average or above-average potential, depending on what source you look at. Like most high school pitchers, he hasn’t thrown a change much yet. His delivery is smooth and should help his command. Baseball America ranked him the 76th best prospect in the draft and MLB.com rated him 69th. He was committed to North Carolina, which can be a difficult school to sign players away from, but he signed surprisingly quickly. His bonus was $1M, which was $113,200 above the slot amount.
Keller signed early enough to see a fair amount of action in the GCL. Despite some bouts with wildness, he was mostly effective, showing very good stuff and an ability to miss bats. His fastball reached 94 regularly and his curve and change showed potential.
The Pirates sent Keller, like Gage Hinsz and Trey Supak, to Bristol. He didn’t debut there until August 2 due to what the Pirates described as mild forearm tightness. He mostly pitched badly, struggling to throw strikes, although he at least struck out a lot of batters.
The Pirates assigned Keller to West Virginia and he had a breakout season. He dominated from his first game and was voted the South Atlantic League’s best pitcher by managers and scouts, along with being ranked the league’s second best prospect by Baseball America. Keller’s fastball sat in the mid-90s and touched higher, his curve developed into a plus pitch and his command improved significantly. If anything, he suffered at times for lack of a challenge as his fastball was often enough by itself to retire hitters. In one game he threw the pitch 48 straight times because the hitters couldn’t handle it. He also experienced no apparent problems from the sharp increase in his workload. Some of this may have resulted from the fact that he had relatively few high-stress innings, with many of his innings requiring only 10-12 pitches or so. Keller had a rough stretch at mid-season — his ERA in three June starts was 6.39 — but he bounced back and finished his time with the Power with an 0.83 ERA in six August starts. Opposing teams tried to stack their lineups against him with left-handed hitters — lefties accounted for over 44% of the plate appearances against him — but he held them to a .456 OPS. The Pirates moved him up to Bradenton for one regular season start, which went very well, and then the Florida State League playoffs.
Keller opened back at Bradenton and continued to show that he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. His numbers there weren’t overwhelming, but the Pirates had him working on mixing his pitches and using his change more, which meant using his main strikeout pitch — his curve — less. He missed a month due to a back injury and also came out of one start early due to a bee sting, of all things. Of the 27 earned runs he allowed in 15 starts at Bradenton, 15 came in three starts: he first start of the and in two rough starts shortly after he returned from the back injury. After Keller finished July with three strong starts, the Pirates moved him up to Altoona and he pitched very well, going back to a more standard pitch selection, which greatly increased his K rate. His xFIP of 2.65 was even better than his ERA. Keller finished his season with two outstanding post-season starts against good teams. The first one was a nine-inning, complete game one-hitter. The other clinched the Eastern League title for Altoona.
Keller’s season wasn’t quite what it was supposed to be. He returned to Altoona and pitched very well without quite dominating. The main difference was that he didn’t show the outstanding command he had previously, walking more hitters than usual and having some issues with high pitch counts. Still, opponents batted only .208 against him. He moved up to Indianapolis after 14 starts and ran into real problems. In his first two AAA starts he gave up 13 runs and 16 hits, along with six walks in 8.2 IP. He partly recovered and pitched better the rest of the season, but was prone to games in which he’d dominate for several innings and then have a bad inning. He did at least continue to show the ability to miss bats.
Keller’s 2018 season showed that he’s not ready for the majors yet. Ideally, he’ll go back to Indianapolis in 2019 and quickly iron out the problems he ran into in 2018. He still should see Pittsburgh at some point in the season, although he’s not on the 40-man roster yet. That will happen in the fall as he’s eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
|2019: Minor league contract
|Signing Bonus: $1,000,000
MiLB Debut: 2014
MiLB FA Eligible: 2020
MLB FA Eligible:
Rule 5 Eligible: 2018
Added to 40-Man:
Options Remaining: 3
MLB Service Time: 0.000
|June 5, 2014: Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2nd round, 64th overall pick; signed on June 14.|